A certain whale has accumulated $527k worth of "The Iranian regime will fall by June 30," currently at a loss of $345k.

ME News Report, April 13 (UTC+8), according to Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring, the whale with address 0xa7d1…b824 has accumulated $527k in purchases predicting “The Iranian regime will fall by June 30,” currently at a loss of $345k. Previously, this whale bought $176k predicting “The U.S. military will invade Iran before March 31” and $148k predicting “The Iranian regime will fall before March 31,” both predictions failed.
According to the market’s judgment rules, the criteria for “Yes” are extremely strict: requiring the current ruling system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (such as the Supreme Leader’s Office, the Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guard led by clerics) to be dissolved, paralyzed, or replaced by a completely different governance system before June 30, 2026.
The basis for judgment must be consensus from recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost actual control over most of the population.
The rules explicitly state that regular political elections, internal reforms, or power transfers do not meet the criteria. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic remains, the market will still settle as “No.”
Additionally, loss of territory or challenges from anti-government armed forces, unless they render the regime unable to govern the majority of the population nationwide, do not constitute “fall.”
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets; before pricing, it observes changes. (Source: ODAILY)