Bloomberg: Polymarket trading volume overtaken by Kalshi, US market expansion repeatedly thwarted

Mars Finance reports that Polymarket, which long dominated the prediction market trading volume, is facing multiple difficulties. According to Dune Analytics data, its global trading volume has been surpassed by its major competitor Kalshi. In terms of valuation, Kalshi announced a new funding round last month, bringing its valuation to $22 billion, while Polymarket’s valuation is $15 billion after it recently received a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Polymarket’s biggest bottleneck is that the U.S. market has yet to officially launch; its U.S. app is still in testing, and its March trading volume was only one-twentieth of Kalshi’s. Technical challenges brought by the blockchain architecture, repeated delays in product launches, recent fee adjustments that have triggered user dissatisfaction, and issues such as the exchange having gone offline for more than an hour have continued to plague the platform. In addition, Polymarket has faced criticism for allowing users to place bets on controversial topics such as war and nuclear explosions, prompting Democratic members of Congress to write a letter to the CFTC urging intervention. ICE CEO Sprecher remains optimistic but admits that it is either a full comeback or a complete strikeout.