I just noticed something interesting in Morgan Stanley's projections about rate cuts. While the market is pointing to a cut in December, Morgan Stanley analysts are still betting on moves in June and September, which is causing quite a bit of skepticism on Wall Street.

Michael Gapen, the institution's chief economist, defended this position in a Bloomberg roundtable, but acknowledges that there are factors complicating the outlook. Oil prices have surged, and inflation concerns following tensions in Iran are playing an important role in monetary policy decisions.

The curious thing is how market sentiment has changed in a short period. Recently, they expected a 50 basis point cut this year, but now futures reflect only a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September. That's a notable shift.

It's not just Morgan Stanley thinking differently. TD Securities and Barclays have also adjusted their forecasts, although they no longer expect a cut in June as they initially believed. Now many see September as the most likely month for the next rate move.

This divergence between what Morgan Stanley predicts and what the market expects is worth paying attention to. If you have positions sensitive to rates, it's probably a good time to watch how these expectations evolve in the coming weeks.