Polymarket's traffic king for the "2028 Presidential Election" is... LeBron James???

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

“Barron’s” reporter Nick Devor posted a very “bizarre” phenomenon this morning on X — in the prediction event for the “2028 Presidential Election” on Polymarket, about 70% of the trading volume is concentrated on candidates who are almost impossible (real-time probability less than 1%).

For example, the highest trading volume is surprisingly NBA star LeBron James (LeBron James, $48.41 million), followed by entertainment socialite Kim Kardashian (Kim Kardashian, $33.84 million), and even some candidates who do not have U.S. citizenship (not eligible to run), such as billionaire Elon Musk (Elon Musk, $23.14 million), New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (Mamdani, $18.39 million)…

As for those real high-probability candidates, such as the current leading vice president JD Vance (trading volume $10.58 million), California Governor Gavin Newsom (trading volume $15.71 million), Secretary of State Marco Rubio (trading volume $9.32 million), their trading volumes are far below those “internet celebrity candidates.”

According to official data from Polymarket, the total trading volume for the “2028 Presidential Election” has already reached $549 million, making it the platform’s hottest betting event. But a closer look at the trading data of 36 candidates reveals the abnormal situation described above. Why is this? Are people crazy, betting on candidates who are almost or entirely impossible?

The answer is naturally no. Earlier this year, Odaily wrote an article titled “Who is Betting on Unconventional Predictions?” explaining that the groups trading or providing liquidity in these absurd markets—such as “Jesus’ Second Coming,” “Flat Earth Theory”—can be categorized into three main groups: “lottery players, bots, and wool parties.”

Nick Devor’s explanation also aligns with the third logic we listed: he found that multiple top addresses hold the same amount of YES and NO shares on the same candidate, essentially to earn risk-free profits from Polymarket subsidies — to maintain long-term pricing accuracy, Polymarket offers a 4% annualized “holding reward” for positions in certain markets, and the “2018 Presidential Election” is one of these subsidized events.

Nick Devor stated that a 4% annualized return exceeds the real-time U.S. Treasury yield (5-year at 3.98%), so whales prefer this low-risk position, such as buying NO shares of LeBron James or Kardashian (either way, whoever is more popular, buy their NO), to earn this part of the return; holding both YES and NO shares simultaneously can achieve risk-free profit.

As for why some users hold small amounts of YES on such low-probability candidates unilaterally, another X user, A5 (@probablythenuts), explained that in this multi-option market, Polymarket provides a feature that allows users to convert a set of NO shares into a corresponding set of YES shares.

Many users, considering liquidity depth or better quotes, use this feature — that is, instead of directly buying YES shares of candidates they believe will win, they first buy NO shares of candidates they believe will not win, then convert these NO shares into a set of corresponding YES shares. Additionally, they can buy NO shares of multiple candidates and, after conversion, hold a set of YES shares of other candidates, including future candidates added to the event.

Therefore, in the “2028 Presidential Election” event on Polymarket, users trading LeBron James and Kardashian are neither crazy nor foolish—they are either seeking stable annualized returns or aiming for better execution paths. Their operations may seem absurd, but behind them remains a rational drive.