Final ultimatum! $BTC short squeeze battle is about to erupt—$80k is the gateway to paradise or a bottomless abyss?

On April 23rd, the price of $BTC hovered around $78k, after having broken through $79k the previous day, hitting a new high since February this year. Meanwhile, $ETH fluctuated around $2,400, and some altcoins experienced significant surges.

Data shows that in the past 24 hours, $462 million worth of positions were forcibly liquidated across the entire contract market, with short positions contributing $353 million. The market panic and greed index rose back to 60, maintaining a neutral sentiment.

Global risk assets continued their rebound. The US stock market hit new highs yesterday: the S&P 500 closed at 7,137.90 points, up 1.05% for the day; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,657.57 points, up 1.64%, reaching a record high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,490.03 points, up 340.65 points. The US dollar index remained high near 98.61, with minimal fluctuations.

On the macro level, signs of easing geopolitical tensions appeared. Former US President Trump announced an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement by 3 to 5 days. Coupled with strong Q1 corporate earnings, US stocks quickly recovered from consecutive declines. On Wednesday, the S&P and Nasdaq reached new all-time highs, with the chip stock index achieving sixteen consecutive gains.

However, oil prices diverged from market optimism. On Wednesday, crude oil prices surged for the third consecutive day, with WTI futures rebounding to pre-negotiation rupture levels, and Brent approaching $102 per barrel. Iran later denied reports of negotiations scheduled for Friday; its president expressed openness to dialogue but criticized the other side for contradictory statements.

As expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East grew, the safe-haven attribute of the dollar was significantly weakened. Meanwhile, market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year resumed. Data shows the dollar index has fallen about 2.3% since the late March high, possibly marking the worst monthly performance since August last year.

Wall Street institutions generally believe that this round of dollar weakness is driven by the “diminishing safe-haven premium” and “shift in policy expectations.” JPMorgan has resumed its short dollar strategy, turning bullish on risk currencies like the Australian dollar; Bank of New York Mellon also pointed out that the broad rebound of emerging market currencies reflects a clear increase in global risk appetite.

Within the crypto market, capital inflow signals are clear. $BTC spot ETFs have experienced six consecutive days of net capital inflows. From April 14 to 21, daily net inflows were positive each day. Notably, on April 17, the single-day net inflow reached $663.91 million, a recent high. This month, there have been only four days of net outflows, with daily outflows not exceeding $400 million.

Regarding $ETH spot ETFs, since April 9, there has been an unprecedented nine consecutive days of net inflows. On April 17, a single-day net inflow of $127 million was recorded, hitting a monthly high. The total market cap of stablecoins has now risen to $320.6 billion, with net inflows of $635 million over the past seven days.

Some analysts point out that $BTC has regained the $78k level, with both spot demand and ETF capital inflows returning. Short positions, along with negative funding rates, have accumulated, creating potential short squeeze conditions. However, high realized profits and subdued volatility signal caution, and there is significant resistance near $80k.

Another view suggests that new sources of $BTC demand are emerging. Continued accumulation by strategic investors provides stable buying support, and signs of capital inflow into holdings are becoming clearer. Specifically, Coinbase Premium has continued to rise, and the daily net inflow of spot $BTC ETFs once reached about $664 million, a high since mid-January.

All these signals point to one direction: the market’s demand structure is recovering. Corporate buy orders, ETF capital inflows, and domestic spot demand in the US are working together, making support at the lows more solid and market participation increasing. Coupled with the rebound of stablecoin funds, liquidity support is gradually strengthening.

These two clues corroborate each other, suggesting the market may be gradually building a new trading range. This does not necessarily mean a straight upward trend, but if these trends continue, the probability of prices moving toward the upper boundary of the range is increasing.

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