The macro tailwinds are still present, but the momentum has already shown signs of fatigue

Since the release of the first-quarter report, the price of Bitcoin has retraced by about 27%, and in early April the average price has hovered around $70.5k. Although the Iran conflict has introduced new uncertainties into the market, the overall macro environment still remains favorable. The current core change is not a fundamental reversal of the trend direction, but a significant slowdown in upward momentum.
Abundant liquidity cannot mask the downward price trend
As of February 2026, the global M2 money supply continues to expand, approaching a record high of $13.44 trillion and setting a new all-time high. However, in sharp contrast to the abundant liquidity, the price of Bitcoin recorded a 27% decline in the first quarter. This divergence between liquidity and price action indicates that capital has not been effectively transmitted to the Bitcoin market, and the traditional “the higher the water, the higher the boat” logic is facing challenges in the current stage.