Ecovacs is "falling behind"

Questioning AI · Why Is Ecovacs’ Stock Price Continually Falling Despite Earnings Forecasts?

Text | Hengxin

Source | Bowang Finance

Not long ago, Ecovacs released a 2025 annual earnings forecast, expecting net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.7 to 1.8 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 110.9% to 123.3%.

This seemingly impressive report card has not stirred much market enthusiasm. On the contrary, Ecovacs’ stock price has fallen from a high of 250.41 yuan in 2020 to around 62 yuan at the end of March 2026, a decline of 75%. This stark divergence between financials and stock price reveals deep market concerns about this former leader in robotic vacuum cleaners.

On the surface, Ecovacs appears to have emerged from the performance lows of 2023-2024, returning to a growth trajectory. But closer analysis uncovers multiple underlying crises: market share being rapidly eroded by competitors, weakening technological moats, a model overly reliant on marketing and neglectful of R&D, ongoing patent disputes, and negative public opinion.

Under fierce assault from emerging players like Stone Technology and Zhunmi Technology, Ecovacs faces unprecedented challenges.

01

False Prosperity: Rebound Growth Under Low Base Masks Long-term Fatigue

Ecovacs’ 2025 performance growth is essentially a typical “restorative rebound,” not a genuine business breakthrough.

This growth is built on a low base following sharp declines in 2023-2024, still far below its historical peak.

In 2023, after founder Qian Dongqi’s son Qian Cheng took over management, Ecovacs’ performance suffered a “collapse,” with net profit attributable to the parent only 612 million yuan, a plunge of 63.96% year-on-year. The 60-something Qian Dongqi urgently reasserted control over core decisions, but in 2024, net profit continued to fall to 806 million yuan. Only in 2025 did performance begin to recover.

However, even with an expected net profit of 1.7-1.8 billion yuan in 2025, this figure remains well below the 2021 peak. This “recovery” more resembles a correction of earlier mistakes rather than a substantial enhancement of business capability.

More concerning is that Ecovacs’ growth model still heavily relies on “heavy marketing.”

Financial reports show that sales expenses consistently account for about 30% of revenue. In the first half of 2025, Ecovacs’ sales expense ratio was 29.99%, while R&D expenses were only 5.64%. This means that for every 3,000 yuan spent on a product, nearly 900 yuan goes toward advertising, endorsements, and live-streaming sales. Such growth driven by “spending money” might have worked during rapid industry expansion, but in a stock-saturated phase, the marginal effects are rapidly diminishing.

Quarterly data indicates that Ecovacs’ growth in Q4 2025 has already shown signs of fatigue.

A research report from Changjiang Securities pointed out that in Q4 2025, domestic sales of Ecovacs’ brand declined by 27% year-on-year, and the Tineco brand declined by 23.83%. Data from Aowei Cloud shows that in Q4 2025, online sales of vacuum cleaners fell by 32.05% year-on-year, and online sales of floor washers fell by 20.53%.

Against the backdrop of an overall industry decline, Ecovacs has slowed the fall somewhat through market share gains, but the shrinking domestic market remains an undeniable fact.

02

Market Share Shrinking Steadily: From Industry Leader to Overtaken

Ecovacs’ most critical crisis lies in its substantial decline in market position.

Once China’s top brand in robotic vacuum cleaners, it has now been surpassed globally by Stone Technology and faces fierce competition domestically from Zhunmi Technology.

Latest IDC data shows that in the global cleaning robot market share ranking for 2025, Stone Technology leads with 17.7%, Ecovacs is second with 14.3%, and Zhunmi follows with 10.5%.

More worryingly, in the second half of 2025, Zhunmi overtook Ecovacs with a 14.4% market share, achieving a real shift in market leadership. In terms of growth, Zhunmi’s global shipments in 2025 increased by 101.9% year-on-year, far surpassing Ecovacs’ 38.3% and Stone Technology’s 76.5%. This shift clearly reflects a profound change in the competitive landscape.

In the domestic market, Ecovacs also faces severe challenges.

Although Aowei Cloud data shows that from January to October 2025, Ecovacs’ sales and market share in the water-rolling drum vacuum segment exceeded 90%, its overall lead in the entire vacuum cleaner market is rapidly eroding. IDC data indicates that in 2024, Ecovacs’ domestic market share was 25.4%, only 3.8 percentage points ahead of Stone Technology. As brands like Stone and Zhunmi push entry-level wet mops below 2,000 yuan, Ecovacs has been forced into price wars, further squeezing profit margins.

Overseas markets, once a key growth engine, accounted for 40.8% of Ecovacs’ revenue in the first half of 2025. But these markets are also fraught with risks.

On one hand, Chinese brands are adopting “price-for-volume” strategies in Europe and America, with some models discounted by 10-30%, spreading price wars overseas.

On the other hand, Ecovacs has repeatedly suffered setbacks in patent disputes. According to Tianyancha and reports from Panshi Zhixin Liao Finance, in 2025, Zhunmi filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Ecovacs and won the first-instance ruling. The Shenyang Intermediate People’s Court found that several of Ecovacs’ popular vacuum robots infringed Zhunmi’s “angled comb teeth for hair entanglement prevention” patent, ordering Ecovacs to cease infringement and pay about 1.7B yuan in damages.

In Germany, Ecovacs was also found in the first trial to infringe on Zhunmi’s bionic robotic arm patent, facing potential bans.

These patent disputes not only cause direct financial losses but may also impact Ecovacs’ product deployment in key overseas markets.

03

Lack of Innovation and Governance Concerns: A Vicious Cycle of Heavy Marketing and Light R&D

Ecovacs’ core dilemma is that its long-standing strategy of “heavy marketing, light R&D” has become unsustainable.

In the rapidly evolving smart cleaning industry, insufficient R&D investment directly leads to declining innovation ability and weakening product competitiveness.

Financial data shows a clear gap between Ecovacs’ R&D spending and that of competitors.

In the first three quarters of 2025, Ecovacs’ R&D expenses totaled 712 million yuan, up 8.25%, with R&D expense ratio remaining low. In comparison, Stone Technology’s R&D investment in the same period was 685 million yuan, a 67.28% increase, with a higher R&D expense ratio. Zhunmi’s R&D ratio also surpasses Ecovacs. This investment disparity directly affects the pace of product innovation.

Technology was once Ecovacs’ key competitive advantage, but that edge is now rapidly eroding.

In mature categories like vacuum cleaners and floor washers, Ecovacs’ “roller active washing” and “Hurricane suction” technologies have been quickly caught up by competitors. Stone Technology’s G20 series floor washers not only replicate the “constant pressure roller brush” but also optimize cleaning paths through self-developed algorithms; Zhunmi leverages high-speed motor technology to boost suction to industry-leading levels.

In terms of innovation, Ecovacs seems stuck in “detail optimization.”

The newly launched Deebot X11 features “PowerBoost instant supercharge” technology, but essentially it’s just a slight improvement in battery life, not a breakthrough in the traditional “cleaning-charging-maintenance” product framework.

In forward-looking technology deployment, Ecovacs also faces the challenge of large investments with slow implementation.

Although the company lists embodied intelligent robots as a future focus, applications like household humanoid robots remain conceptual, with no clear commercialization path. Compared to competitors’ more advanced layouts, Ecovacs’ pace appears slow.

Corporate governance issues are also notable.

Frequent management changes have impacted overall R&D and operational efficiency. According to media reports from Ginkgo Technology and others, after Qian Cheng took office, he recruited a team of high-level executives from outside and replaced several department heads. While these new leaders have impressive resumes, most lack experience in the robotic vacuum industry, causing Ecovacs’ R&D rhythm to lag and further slowing market responsiveness.

Product quality and after-sales service issues exacerbate the problem.

Data from the Black Cat Complaint Platform shows that by the end of March 2026, nearly 8,000 complaints had been filed against Ecovacs, and with its sub-brand Tineco, total complaints exceeded 14,000. Major issues include product quality problems, frequent faults within warranty, and opaque after-sales repairs.

Some consumers report that newly purchased robots leak water immediately after installation, damaging floors; others complain about recurring faults in window-cleaning robots, with inspection centers repeatedly finding “no problem,” leading to rejection of replacement requests. These negative experiences severely damage brand reputation and user loyalty.

Conclusion

Ecovacs’ 2025 financial report is a contradictory performance sheet.

While profit has doubled on the surface, it cannot hide deeper issues such as declining market share, insufficient innovation, and product quality concerns. As the smart cleaning industry shifts from incremental to stock competition, Ecovacs stands at a crossroads.

The 2025 performance rebound may only be a brief calm before the storm.

Faced with fierce competition from Stone Technology and Zhunmi, and under the technological assault from cross-industry giants, if Ecovacs cannot fundamentally address its R&D underinvestment, product quality problems, and unclear brand positioning, its industry standing could further decline.

Behind the profit doubling lies a brewing deeper crisis.

Once a leading industry giant, Ecovacs is confronting its most severe challenges since its founding.

What the future holds for Ecovacs remains a story that Bowang Finance will continue to follow.

Author’s note: Personal opinions, for reference only.