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Will there be a war? The key is not the United States, but Iran's "decision moment"
Many discussions focus on whether the U.S. will take military action, but the more critical question is: When will Iran make a decision?
Currently, the biggest variable is internal disagreement. The struggle between hardliners and the government has put the entire country in a state of "decision delay."
And the 3-5 day window provided by Donald Trump essentially compresses this delay space.
If Iran cannot unify its stance in the short term, negotiations will naturally stall. At that point, the U.S. will reassess military options, turning it into a "passive choice."
But if Iran's top leadership suddenly makes a clear statement, whether to participate in negotiations or reject them, the situation will quickly become clear.
So the real key is not 36 hours, nor 72 hours, but the "decision moment."
Before that moment, everything is a test; after that moment, everything points to a direction.
In other words, this is not the endgame, but the night before.
#美伊二轮谈判进展