Is it feasible for the UK to bypass the United States and over 40 countries to discuss opening the Strait of Hormuz?

How will the UK-led meeting push forward subsequent diplomatic actions?

On April 2 local time, the UK hosted an online discussion to explore ways to form an alliance to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Representatives from over 40 countries attended the meeting.

According to Xinhua News Agency, this meeting was jointly promoted by the UK and France, with participants including UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and officials from multiple countries. The United States was not invited to participate. However, three anonymous U.S. government officials told Axios News on April 1 that the U.S. hopes to negotiate with Iran, exchanging a ceasefire for the normal navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, though it’s unclear if this can succeed.

Previously, European countries refused to intervene in ensuring navigation safety due to concerns about being drawn into the conflict. But as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been interrupted and global oil and gas prices remain high, Europe has decided to “step in,” though countries like the UK and France have stated they will refuse to use force.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on April 1 that UK Foreign Secretary Cooper would host an international meeting this week on the Strait of Hormuz to discuss plans for restoring navigation.

UK takes the lead, US absent

On April 1, Sunak stated that participating countries will “assess all feasible diplomatic and political measures to restore freedom of navigation, ensure the safety of trapped ships and crews, and resume the transport of vital supplies.” “After this meeting, we will also convene military planners to explore how to coordinate our resources to ensure the Strait remains open and secure after the conflict ends.”

Reportedly, the participants in the April 2 meeting included countries that signed a joint statement in March and subsequently agreed to cooperate, such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia, Japan, Canada, South Korea, New Zealand, the UAE, and Nigeria.

The meeting was seen as a first step, mainly to assess the situation and ensure coordinated efforts, rather than making specific operational decisions. More working group meetings will follow to finalize details.

In her opening remarks at the April 2 meeting, Cooper emphasized that the focus was on diplomatic measures rather than military options. She said all parties hope to use “all possible diplomatic, economic, and coordinated measures” to reopen the strait, including increasing pressure through the UN and exploring sanctions “to force Iran to relent if it continues to keep the strait closed.” This also includes cooperation with the International Maritime Organization to ensure the first stranded ships can resume sailing.

The UK government revealed that plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz also include ensuring the waterway is free of mines. The second phase of measures will protect oil tankers passing through the strait.

At a regular press conference of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on April 2, a reporter asked about the UK convening this meeting. Spokesperson Mao Ning responded that achieving a ceasefire and restoring peace and stability in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters is a shared goal of the international community.

The U.S. was not invited to participate. Previously, President Trump had stated that ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz was not the responsibility of the U.S., telling European countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas to “go and fight for their own oil.” On April 1, he claimed on social media that as long as the strait remains closed, the U.S. would not reach a ceasefire with Iran, and threatened to “blow Iran back to the Stone Age.”

After the U.S.-Israel military strikes against Iran, Iran has essentially blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, Iran has established a toll system for ships passing through the strait. According to Bloomberg, Iran’s five-tier classification system favors countries deemed more friendly, offering better terms. The toll usually starts at $1 per barrel, payable in RMB or stablecoins. This means a super-large oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil would pay up to $2 million in tolls.

Christopher Fetherston, an assistant professor of politics and international relations at York University, believes that the key significance of this UK-led meeting is to demonstrate that, besides the U.S., other countries are also willing to use diplomatic means to restore normalcy.

Openings of the strait still depend on Iran

Initially, Europe refused to intervene in reopening the Strait of Hormuz due to fears of being drawn into the conflict. But as the war continued and global oil and gas prices soared, EU countries decided to work with the UK to reopen the strait.

Fabian Zulegg, CEO of the European Policy Center, believes that the “most likely outcome” of this conflict is that Europe will participate in some form to ensure the safety of maritime passage through the strait.

However, no country is willing to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz by military means. On April 1, Sunak said that restoring shipping “is not an easy task,” requiring “strong military force and diplomatic coordination,” as well as cooperation with the shipping industry. On April 2, French President Macron stated that forcibly opening the strait through military action is not feasible.

“We have never supported such an approach because it’s unrealistic and would take a long time,” Macron said. He pointed out that ships passing through the strait would face threats from coastal forces, especially from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has “vast resources and ballistic missiles.” He believes the best way to ensure the strait’s openness is through direct communication with Iran.

David Roberts, senior lecturer in Middle Eastern security studies at King’s College London, analyzed that whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open depends on Iran, and it’s impossible to rely solely on force to open it. Using force could trigger panic and revert the situation to the starting point.

“Oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is mainly operated by commercial companies, and shipping insurers also have interests in the strait. Even if U.S. military power appears, this area would become a battlefield, and companies would be reluctant to risk ships passing through,” said Ross Harrison, senior researcher at the Middle East Institute and author of Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy, in an interview with The Paper. “If Iran cannot directly control the strait, they are very likely to resort to sabotage, which is very low-cost—just one drone strike, and everything ends. Other ships would dare not pass.”

Al Jazeera reported that on the positive side, this broad alliance includes not only Western and NATO countries like the UK, France, Nordic, and Baltic states but also countries like Bahrain, the UAE, Panama, and Nigeria. But the core issue is capacity—what these countries can do and how much naval power they can provide.

Ian Lesser, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, believes that this alliance is very suitable for providing security for merchant ships after the war ends, but it depends on whether member countries are willing to send naval forces. Given the current situation, unless some transit arrangements are made with Iran, the alliance’s prospects remain doubtful.