A certain whale has accumulated $527k worth of "The Iranian regime will fall by June 30," currently at a loss of $345k.

ME News report, April 13 (UTC+8). Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the giant whale at address 0xa7d1…b824 has cumulatively purchased $527k worth of “The Iranian regime will collapse by June 30,” and is currently down $345k. Previously, this whale had purchased $176k of “The U.S. military will invade Iran before March 31” and $148k of “The Iranian regime will collapse before March 31,” and both predictions failed.

Under this market’s judgment rules, the criteria for a “Yes” verdict are extremely strict: they require that the current ruling system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (such as the Supreme Leader’s Office, the Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guard led by clerics) be dissolved, paralyzed, or completely replaced by a completely different governance system before June 30, 2026. The basis for judgment must be consensus among widely recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost actual control over most of the population. The rules clearly state that ordinary political elections, internal reforms, or power transitions do not meet the criteria. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic is preserved, the market will still settle as “No.” In addition, the loss of some territories or challenges from anti-government armed forces does not constitute “collapse” unless it results in the regime being unable to manage the majority of the population nationwide.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets; before pricing, it sees changes. (Source: ODAILY)