I noticed an interesting legal conflict unfolding around Kalshi and prediction markets. Federal regulators—the CFTC and the Минюст—are actively trying to block Arizona’s attempts to apply local gambling laws to the platform.

The core of the dispute is that the federal side insists: sports contracts, elections, and other events are not gambling, but financial derivatives and swaps. By their logic, such should be regulated by federal law—the Закон о товарной бирже—rather than by state rules. Arizona, however, views it differently and has tried to bring Kalshi under local legislation.

What’s interesting is that the federal appellate court in Нью-Джерси has already ruled in favor of Kalshi, confirming that their contracts comply with federal law. But not all jurisdictions agree with this approach; some continue to support states’ right to regulate on their own.

Right now, everything comes down to how the court will respond to the motion by the federal authorities. If the CFTC wins, then prediction markets will ultimately fall under a single federal jurisdiction. That would be logical, but Arizona clearly doesn’t want to give up its position. The question remains open—let’s see how this conflict between the state and federal regulators will be resolved.