Analysis of BTC on-chain costs and pressures: True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis overview

As of April 23, 2026, Gate Market Data shows Bitcoin at $77,994.4, with a 24-hour trading volume of $512 million, a market capitalization of approximately $1.49 trillion, and a market share of 56.37%. Over the past 7 days, Bitcoin has gained about 4.68%; since the early February low of around $60,529 this year, the cumulative rebound has exceeded 28%.

However, as the price approaches the $78,000 level again, on-chain data signals point in the same direction—Bitcoin is touching a “fate door” built by two core cost indicators: True Market Mean (TMM) and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis). These two lines are currently at approximately $78,200 and $79,200, respectively, forming a dual resistance zone between $78,200 and $79,200.

On-Chain Logic of Cost Basis

True Market Mean: The Real Cost Anchor Excluding “Zombie Coins”

True Market Mean Price (TMMP) is not a traditional market price moving average but an on-chain cost indicator based on the “Coin-Time Economics” framework. Its core design logic is that not all mined Bitcoin are actively circulating in the market. A large number of early lost private keys, forgotten addresses, and long-dormant holdings have effectively been permanently removed from the available supply.

TMMP is calculated by the ratio of investor market value to active supply, precisely excluding the influence of these “zombie coins,” measuring only the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin actually circulating in the secondary market. In other words, it reflects the average holding price of truly active market participants.

As of April 22, Bitcoin has, for the first time since mid-January, broken through the True Market Mean (around $78,100 to $78,200). Historically, breaking this level often signals a transition from a deep bear market to a more constructive phase. Therefore, the True Market Mean is regarded as an important dividing line between “continuing bear market” and “structural recovery.”

Short-Term Holder Cost Line: The Profit and Loss Boundary of the Most Price-Sensitive Group

Compared to TMMP, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) provides a stronger behavioral signal in the short term. This indicator is defined as the average holding cost of investors who bought Bitcoin within the past 155 days.

This group exhibits very distinct behavior: highly sensitive to price fluctuations, often triggering strong sell-offs or profit-taking when the price approaches their cost line. During bear market rebounds, the STH Cost Basis usually acts as the most stubborn resistance—since many holders break even at this zone, their psychological urge to realize gains is most intense.

Currently, this indicator is in the range of about $79,200 to $80,100. When Bitcoin fluctuates between $77,000 and $78,000, the overall position of short-term holders is slightly at a loss. This “underwater” position structure means that once the price hits this cost line, a wave of profit-taking is highly probable.

Formation Mechanism of the Dual Resistance Zone

These two lines are not isolated. When TMMP and STH Cost Line overlap at similar prices, they form a “resistance overlay zone.”

On-chain data shows that this overlap area is concentrated between $78,200 and $79,200. Bitcoin has recovered above TMMP but remains below the STH Cost Line—meaning the market has passed the first test, but the second, and more solid resistance, has yet to be overcome.

Current Market Structure: Rebound Encountering Resistance Before Testing

From Bottom to Resistance: Rebound Path Analysis

Since hitting the intra-year low of about $60,529 on February 6, Bitcoin has been rising gradually within a channel, with a rebound of over 28%. On April 17, it reached a high of $78,320 but failed to break through effectively, then oscillated repeatedly between $76,000 and $78,000.

On April 23, Bitcoin tested the $78,000 level again, with a 24-hour high of $79,469.8, then pulled back. This price action precisely aligns with the dual resistance zone of $78,200 to $79,200—indicating the market is facing natural resistance from on-chain cost structures in this area.

Contradictory Signals from Funding and Derivatives Markets

Alongside the price rebound, there is a clear improvement in capital flows. After months of net outflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs’ 7-day moving average has turned back into net inflows. As of the week ending April 20, Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow approached $1 billion. Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to accumulate, holding 815,061 BTC with an average cost of about $75,527, and has already realized overall profit when the price broke above $78,000.

However, the derivatives market shows a starkly different signal. Perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative, indicating a market leaning toward short positions. This negative rate structure does not necessarily predict a decline—if spot buying remains strong, it could set the stage for a short squeeze.

Actual Data on Profit-Taking and Supply Pressure

Behavioral data of short-term holders further confirms the resistance zone’s effectiveness. Current profit-taking rate among short-term holders is about $4.4 million per hour, roughly three times the threshold of previous local tops this year (~$1.5 million/hour).

This suggests that even before reaching the STH Cost Line, profit-taking willingness has significantly increased. If the price further rises toward $80,000, over 54% of short-term holders will be in profit—historically, this level often marks the exhaustion point of bear market rebounds.

Meanwhile, order book data shows persistent accumulation of sell orders between $78,000 and $80,000, forming the main current resistance zone. There are also dense buy orders near $75,700 (over $217 million), creating a short-term support zone.

Divergence in Market Views: Breakthrough Signal or End of Rebound

Market opinions are sharply divided regarding the current dual resistance zone.

One camp believes that regaining the True Market Mean is a cyclical signal. Historical data shows that during past bear markets, prices often stayed below TMMP for extended periods, and a successful recovery above this level typically signals the end of the most pessimistic phase. Coupled with ETF inflow reversal, institutional accumulation, and easing geopolitical tail risks, this view leans toward an early stage of trend recovery.

The other camp emphasizes on-chain structural concerns. There remains a significant gap of about $35,000 between short-term and long-term holder cost bases. In previous cycles, such gaps often needed further convergence before confirming a bottom. Additionally, the current rebound volume shows divergence—price rises but volume diminishes, weakening the credibility of a trend reversal. The persistent negative funding rates in perpetuals also reflect deep skepticism among market participants about sustained upward movement.

Possible Market Evolution Paths Under Two Main Scenarios

Based on the current on-chain cost structure, the following are hypothetical scenario analyses.

Scenario 1: Effective Breakthrough of the Dual Resistance Zone

If Bitcoin can close above $79,200 consistently, it indicates a substantial breach of the dual resistance zone. In this case, the $78,200–$79,200 area will turn from resistance into support. Historical patterns suggest that once resistance turns to support, further upward momentum is likely.

Key levels to watch include the $84,000–$86,000 range (corresponding to ETF holders’ average cost line) and further out, around $87,050 (near the 365-day moving average). However, as prices rise, profit-taking among short-term holders will increase rapidly, adding supply pressure.

Scenario 2: Encountering Resistance and Reverting to Range

If the price repeatedly faces resistance within the dual resistance zone, the market will likely continue a broad sideways consolidation. The dense buy orders near $75,700 will be tested first; if this support fails, focus shifts to around $72,000.

In a more pessimistic scenario, a drop below $70,000 would mean the current rebound is fully negated, and the market would revisit the support near February lows. Glassnode analysis indicates that TMMP below about $69,900 (−1 standard deviation zone) is a secondary reference level to watch.

In any case, the behavior of short-term holders will be a key variable. Their willingness to sell near the cost line and the scale of such selling will directly influence whether the price can break through or be held back at resistance.

Conclusion

The $78,200 to $79,200 zone Bitcoin is currently in is essentially a “decision zone” naturally formed by on-chain cost structures. The recovery of TMMP provides initial evidence of structural repair, but the pressure from the STH Cost Line clearly delineates the upper limit of short-term upward space.

Notably, during this rebound, institutional capital flows have improved significantly, while the negative funding rate in derivatives markets leaves room for potential upward volatility. Meanwhile, profit-taking among short-term holders is high, and sell walls between $78,000 and $80,000 continue to accumulate.

These signals do not point to a simple “bull” or “bear” conclusion but rather to a market in increasing divergence, approaching a decision point. For participants, understanding the underlying logic of on-chain cost structures is more valuable than chasing short-term price directions. Building a structured understanding of the market through cross-validated data is the foundation for navigating volatility cycles.