Is the "quantum doomsday" in the crypto world accelerating to arrive? Google's warning escape timetable: 2029!

Ask AI · How is the cryptocurrency industry preparing for the 2029 PQC migration?

Cailian Press, April 1 (Editor: Xiaoxiang) Google researchers warned on Tuesday that future quantum computers might be able to crack some of the current cryptographic technologies protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets with fewer resources than previously thought, making discussions on how the industry should prepare more urgent.

The researchers did not specify that such machines currently exist, but they stated that recent studies suggest the computational power needed for such attacks could be lower than many early estimates.

In a recent blog post published by Google Research, the researchers indicated that future quantum computers might break elliptic curve cryptography — a widely adopted public key encryption technology in the market today.

Their latest estimates show that the quantum hardware scale required to crack the so-called ECDLP-256(, a mathematical problem used to secure cryptocurrency wallets and transaction safety, could be reduced by about 20 times.

This does not mean that Bitcoin or Ethereum will suddenly face security risks. But in a white paper released on Monday, Google researchers pointed out that the clearest defense is to switch to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) — a new security mechanism designed to resist powerful machine attacks. They also urged the crypto industry to reduce avoidable risks during this period.

“We urge all cryptocurrency communities with security vulnerabilities to immediately migrate to PQC,” they stated.

“Escape” Timeline: 2029!

Google views this white paper as a warning, aiming to buy the industry time to take action — rather than predicting an imminent collapse. Last week, the tech giant announced a timetable to fully migrate its own security systems to PQC by 2029.

Google researchers said that although the time remaining before such quantum computers emerge still seems longer than the time needed to migrate public blockchains to PQC, the margin for error is shrinking. Given the pace of technological progress, developers, exchanges, and wallet providers should accelerate efforts to strengthen their systems before the threat becomes real.

They also pointed out some early ongoing projects, including PQC initiatives like QRL and Abelian, work related to Algorand, and experiments on Solana and XRP Ledger. “These pioneering projects demonstrate that transitioning to PQC is feasible,” they wrote.

For years, concerns about quantum computing posing a real threat to cryptocurrencies have been rampant.

In January this year, Coinbase Global Inc. established an independent advisory committee to study the potential impact of quantum computing on blockchains. In the same month, Jefferies’ global equity strategist Christopher Wood removed 10% of Bitcoin from his model portfolio, citing worries that the advent of quantum computing could undermine the value of this cryptocurrency.

However, on Tuesday, the crypto market seemed unfazed by the widespread circulation of Google’s report, with Bitcoin’s price rising as much as 2.6% to around $68,300.

CoinShares investment strategist Matthew Kimmell said the warning signals the need for “responsible urgent action.”

“The timeline is shortening and becoming more credible,” he said. “This research shortens the window for the industry to push research and reach an action plan. The good news is, this problem can still be solved.”

(Cailian Press, Xiaoxiang)