JPMorgan just dropped an interesting breakdown on what could happen with the Supreme Court's tariff decision, and there are four possible paths forward here.

The base case scenario, which they're giving a 66% probability, is that tariffs get repealed and immediately replaced with something new. If that plays out, we're looking at a 0.75% to 1% bump for the S&P 500, with maybe 10 to 20 basis points tacked on by the end of the period. That's the most bullish outcome for equities.

Then there's the scenario where tariffs actually stick around. JPMorgan puts this at 24% odds, and it's not pretty for stocks. The S&P 500 could take a hit of 30 to 50 basis points if this happens. Not catastrophic, but definitely a headwind.

The third possibility, with a 9% chance, is that tariffs get repealed and replaced, but only after the midterm elections. That timing could actually be more bullish than the immediate replacement scenario. We're talking 1.25% to 1.5% upside for the S&P 500 here.

And then there's the wildcard scenario that JPMorgan gives just 1% probability to: tariffs get repealed with no replacement. If that somehow happens, you're looking at the biggest upside, potentially 1.5% to 2% for the S&P 500.

So basically, three out of four scenarios are bullish for equities, with the most likely one delivering moderate gains. The real risk is if tariffs stick, but that's the minority outcome according to JPMorgan's analysis. Worth keeping an eye on how this Supreme Court decision actually plays out.