Recently, I haven't been focusing much on charts when watching the market; instead, I'm more concerned with how the chain of interest rates and risk appetite is transmitted to myself. When interest rates rise, the little "patience for risk" everyone holds becomes more expensive. To put it simply, people prefer to hold cash or short-term bonds and other safe assets, so leverage naturally decreases, and positions shrink. Conversely, when the market cools down, more people are willing to take on risk again, but not immediately with full positions—probabilistically, they start from mainstream assets with good liquidity.

There's also a small point: in some places, tax increases and compliance regulations fluctuate between tightening and loosening. For someone like me who tends to be pessimistic, this has a bigger impact than the market itself... When deposit and withdrawal expectations change, people subconsciously increase their demand to "withdraw at any time," making chain-based run-like transfers and net outflows from exchanges more likely to occur. Anyway, my current approach is to follow interest rates with my positions, but I pay more attention to whether I can exit smoothly—surviving is more important than betting on the right direction.