Deep Analysis of Financial Logic: The Game and Symbiosis Between the US Dollar, Gold, Crypto Assets, and Oil Resources

Recently, the topic of gold has resurged in popularity. What is the underlying financial logic behind it? Today, we will deeply dissect the complex relationships among the US dollar, gold, crypto assets, oil, and resources, gaining insight into the fundamental logic of the global financial landscape.

1. Demand Pool Flow Logic: The Triangular Balance of the US Dollar, Gold, and Crypto Assets

The “demand pool flow logic” among the US dollar, gold, and crypto assets (jmhb) has never changed. At the Wash hearing, crypto assets were explicitly mentioned as integrated into the U.S. financial system. If they take office, from Trump to Bessent to Wash, they will actively promote the development of crypto assets, allowing them to continuously serve as “regulatory leverage” within the “water reservoir logic.”

2. The Deep Bond Between Gold and the US Dollar: The Legacy of the Bretton Woods System

At the end of World War II, the Bretton Woods Conference saw the British pound cede its dominance to the US dollar, primarily because the US held the largest gold reserves in the world. During the war, countries like the UK lacked supplies and military equipment and could only purchase from the US. When repaying, the US demanded payment in gold, but the UK, short of funds, had to compromise.

The US understood the significance of gold for dollar hegemony. De Gaulle once sent ships to the US to retrieve gold, but the US blocked this midway, because if gold reserves were to diminish, the dollar’s global dominance would be at risk. This shows that gold is crucial to the US, but this importance cannot surpass the dollar. Behind the dollar is gold, yet the market must perceive them as “somewhat opposed,” and over a decade ago, the US realized this opposition might become invalid, so it introduced crypto assets.

3. The Dialectic of a Strong Dollar and Dollar Depreciation: Oil Binding and Currency Swap Drivers

The US has always supported a “strong dollar,” but at the same time hopes for dollar depreciation. This appears contradictory but is actually feasible because the global trust, reserves, and use of the dollar, underpinned by the dollar-centric financial logic, enable “liquidity expansion.”

Currently, Middle East events are a key step in the US’s push to further bind “oil and the dollar.” Treasury Secretary Bessent revealed that the UAE and Asian allies are communicating with the US about “currency swaps.” Due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, oil exports from Gulf countries are hindered, affecting Asian countries’ oil imports. Since global oil transactions are mainly settled in dollars, a decline in Gulf oil revenues means fewer dollars, and Asian countries need to use more dollar reserves to import oil.

Persistent dollar shortages could impact foreign exchange reserves, increase the difficulty of corporate dollar debt repayments, and cause domestic currency fluctuations. “Currency swaps” can help these countries obtain more dollars, prevent “dollar shortages,” and stabilize their exchange rates. This process also indirectly helps the US strengthen the dollar’s global dominance, making allies more financially “bound” to the US.

Bessent, with over 30 years of practical experience in currency and exchange rate operations, is well-versed in “expectation management” in financial markets. During sensitive periods when the global focus is on the dollar’s status and the attractiveness of US capital markets, he cleverly uses communications from other countries to support the importance of the dollar. As the dollar’s position further consolidates, the US can confidently “print money,” otherwise the risks are too great.

4. The Future of Gold and Crypto Assets: Tokenization and Resource-Linked Assets

If the US “eases liquidity,” gold will likely see a rise, given that the US holds the largest gold reserves. The rise benefits the US but will be suppressed once it reaches a certain level.

Besides gold, crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC), stablecoins (wdb), and others are increasingly important for the US to be “linked” with energy, key minerals, and other resources, thereby achieving “on-chain” (RWA) and promoting their “tokenization.” Because all of this is rooted in the “dollar system,” only through such linkage can gold’s rise take on “new significance,” and crypto assets can gain broader recognition and use domestically and globally by tying to essential energy, resources, and critical minerals worldwide.

In summary, the game and symbiosis among the US dollar, gold, crypto assets, oil, and resources form a complex picture of global finance. Understanding this logic is key to seizing opportunities amid market volatility.