SpaceX strikes a $2 trillion valuation; the real selling point isn’t rockets but “space computing power”

SpaceX’s IPO is shifting from an “imagination-driven story” to “financial verification.” The latest leaked data has two core signals: first, revenue growth is extremely fast—around $16 billion in 2025 and an estimated $25 billion in 2026; second, and more importantly, Starlink’s EBITDA profit margin exceeds 60%, far above the market’s prior expectation of 50%.

So what does this mean? It means SpaceX is no longer a “burning cash to do space” company, but a business system with strong cash flow. In essence, Starlink has already turned into a high-margin global communications operator, and it is still in a phase of rapid user growth (expected to rise from 9 million to 12 million).

But what truly supports a $2 trillion valuation isn’t these “certainties,” but a new narrative—space AI data centers.

In simple terms, what Musk wants to convey is: in the future, computing power won’t only be on the ground—it can also be in orbit. By using Starlink and Starship to reduce costs, and moving data centers into space, SpaceX could gain potential advantages in terms of energy, heat dissipation, and network infrastructure. Once this logic holds, SpaceX won’t just be a space company—it will become a next-generation infrastructure provider.

The problem is that this story is still in the “faith-based pricing” stage.

On the one hand, the company has about $25 billion in cash on its books; at the same time, it carries about $50 billion in liabilities, and it also involves a complex structure intertwined with xAI and the X ecosystem. This means SpaceX isn’t a clean “pure space asset,” but part of Musk’s ecosystem.

On the other hand, even if Starlink makes money again, it can only support an “excellent company valuation.” To push toward $2 trillion, it must rely on a “future narrative.” Whether the market is willing to pay for “space computing power” ultimately comes down to one question: is this an inevitable trend, or a technical fantasy?

In other words, this IPO right now isn’t being priced based on financial statements—it’s being priced as “the future.”

The guru’s view

This round of SpaceX’s IPO is, in essence, a top-tier narrative test.

If the market accepts “space = next-generation computing infrastructure,” then $2 trillion isn’t the end—it’s the starting point;

If the market only treats it as a “high-profit satellite internet + space company,” then the valuation will quickly revert to reality.

The key isn’t how much it makes today, but what model the market is willing to use to understand it.

One-sentence summary:

This isn’t about buying a space company,

It’s about betting on whether “human computing power” will go to space.

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