A certain whale has accumulated $527k worth of "The Iranian regime will fall by June 30," currently at a loss of $345k.

ME News Report, April 13 (UTC+8), according to Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring, the whale with address 0xa7d1…b824 has accumulated $527k USD in purchases “The Iranian regime will fall on June 30,” and has currently lost $345k USD. Previously, this whale had bought $176k USD of “The U.S. military invaded Iran before March 31” and $148k USD of “The Iranian regime will fall before March 31,” both predictions failed.
According to the market’s judgment rules, the “Yes” condition is extremely strict: it requires that the current ruling system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (such as the Supreme Leader’s Office, the Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guard led by clergy) be dissolved, paralyzed, or replaced by a completely different governance system before June 30, 2026. The judgment must be based on consensus from recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost actual control over most of the population. The rules clearly state: routine political elections, internal reforms, or power transfers do not meet the criteria. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic remains, the market will still settle as “No.”
Additionally, loss of territory or challenges from anti-government armed forces, unless they render the regime unable to govern the majority of the population nationwide, do not constitute “fall.”
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)