Gold Rebounds Above $4,900 Ahead of Fed Minutes After 3% Drop

Khac Phu Nguyen

Wed, February 18, 2026 at 8:32 PM GMT+9 2 min read

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Gold (GLD) prices have staged a measured rebound, advancing back above $4,900 an ounce as investors stepped in following a sharp two-day pullback. In thin Wednesday trading, with much of Asia closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, bullion rose as much as 1.3% and traded at $4,917.45 an ounce by 9:59 a.m. in London. The move follows a volatile stretch in which gold fell more than 3% over the previous two sessions, after having surged to a record above $5,595 an ounce in late January before retreating almost to $4,400 in just two sessions. While the metal has since recovered nearly half of those losses, price action has remained choppy, suggesting positioning may still be recalibrating.

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Strategists at BMO Capital Markets noted that during the holiday period investors can reasonably expect a soft patch for precious metals, potentially creating an opening for dip buyers. At the same time, several major banks including BNP Paribas SA, Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. continue to forecast that gold could resume its broader upward trajectory. Their constructive view is tied to factors that underpinned the earlier rally, including heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. Although speculative buying appeared to overheat the market in January, the underlying macro backdrop cited by these institutions has not materially shifted.

Near-term direction may hinge on signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly the minutes from its January meeting due later Wednesday. Policymakers opted to hold interest rates steady at that gathering. Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that rates should remain steady for some time until officials see more evidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% goal. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, meanwhile, indicated there is potential for more cuts this year if inflation continues progressing toward that target. Gold briefly rallied last Friday after modest inflation data strengthened the case for lowering borrowing costs, underscoring how sensitive the non-yielding metal could be to shifts in rate expectations. Silver climbed 3.1% to $75.78 an ounce, platinum rose 1.4%, palladium gained 1.8%, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged 0.1% higher.

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