Recently, Trump publicly issued a major regulatory signal, clearly stating that federal officials' insider betting behaviors in prediction markets will be thoroughly investigated. Suddenly, the prediction market track, which had been quietly emerging, was pushed to the forefront of public opinion and regulatory scrutiny.

In his public remarks, Trump bluntly said that "the whole world is a bit like a casino," clearly expressing his opposition to gambling, while the chaos of officials using insider information to participate in prediction market bets became the focus of this crackdown. Such violations based on exploiting special information gaps not only undermine market fairness but also breed risks of rent-seeking and gray-area transactions, which are key reasons for the government's determination to regulate.
However, behind this regulatory move, there are highly controversial conflicts of interest. According to media reports, Trump's son holds shares in the prediction market platform Polymarket and also serves as an advisor to Kalshi. These two major platforms are currently the core players in the prediction market track. During the tense US-Iran situation, Polymarket-related event prediction market value once exceeded $100 million, with trading volume and market enthusiasm surging. On one side, Trump is publicly cracking down on prediction market violations; on the other side, his close ties to leading platforms and deep industry involvement have sparked widespread doubts, with ongoing controversy over conflicting interests.
Notably, just before the controversy escalated, Polymarket and Kalshi, two mainstream prediction market platforms, simultaneously announced the launch of perpetual contract products, aiming to further expand their business scope, enlarge market size, and accelerate track expansion. The launch of new products was an important signal of industry upgrading, but Trump’s sudden regulatory stance directly slowed down industry development, with the tightening of regulation quickly casting a shadow over the entire track.
Prediction markets, centered on betting on event outcomes, have rapidly attracted large amounts of capital and users in recent years due to their flexible trading mechanisms and timely event-based trading targets. Especially in hot topics like geopolitical and international situations, trading volume has repeatedly surged. However, for a long time, this track has always operated in a regulatory gray area, with issues such as insider trading, rule loopholes, and gambling tendencies accumulating over time, creating compliance risks.
Trump’s targeted crackdown on insider betting by federal officials is not just a short-term regulatory action but also signals that the era of strict regulation for global prediction markets may accelerate. On one hand, behaviors of public officials participating in gray-area bets will be strictly constrained to cut off improper connections between power and markets; on the other hand, the expansion of leading platforms’ businesses may be restricted, and the compliance of innovative products like perpetual contracts will face comprehensive review. The era of unregulated industry growth is officially coming to an end.
On one side, there is a demand for industry innovation and development; on the other, there are rigid regulatory requirements. Prediction markets are about to undergo a new round of reshuffling. Whether conflicts of interest can be clarified, how platform innovation can adapt to regulatory rules, and how to protect the trading rights of ordinary users will become key focuses for future industry development. Trump’s recent statement is just the beginning of tightening regulation; the future of prediction market compliance transformation is destined to be full of negotiations and adjustments, and the track’s subsequent direction warrants ongoing attention. @Gate Live @Gate广场_Official #US-Iran negotiations deadlocked