Just now! Trump criticizes the global gambling industry, but behind the scenes, someone is making $400k by sneaking past policies—insider trading has infiltrated the oil and prediction markets. Will you be the next to get caught?

Let’s start with something that sends a chill down your spine. A U.S. military special forces soldier, just hours before Trump announced the arrest of Venezuela’s President Maduro, poured $33k into the prediction platform Polymarket, betting on Maduro’s ouster. The result: that order netted over $400k in profit. Federal investigators traced him through online activity and arrested him directly on Thursday.

When asked about this by reporters, Trump’s expression was subtle. He said he didn’t know the specifics but added, “The world has become a bit like a casino.” He also made an analogy with baseball star Pete Rose—who was banned for life for betting on his own team.

But that statement sounds a bit ironic. Because at the same time Trump was saying this, a series of “timed” trades were unfolding in the crude oil futures market. On April 7 at 3:45 p.m. New York time, traders swept through 15 million barrels of Brent and WTI crude contracts in two minutes, worth $1.7 billion. At the same moment, European and American stock index futures also experienced abnormal volume. Three hours later, Trump posted on social media that he would announce a two-week ceasefire. WTI then plummeted 15%, and the stock market surged 2.5%.

Here’s a quick calculation: if you shorted $1 million worth of oil futures during that surge and closed your position after Trump’s post, you’d have made nearly $170k in net profit.

This isn’t an isolated case. Bloomberg data shows that within just two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m. on March 23, at least 6 million barrels of oil futures changed hands, and 6,000 U.S. stock index futures contracts traded, totaling over $2 billion. Sixteen minutes later, Trump posted that he was delaying strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by five days. Brent oil dropped 15%, and U.S. stocks rebounded 4% from their lows.

Senator Elizabeth Warren couldn’t stay silent. She wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), demanding an investigation into these “incredible” trades. Representative Rick Torres also called on the CFTC this Wednesday to expand the investigation to include suspicious trades that appeared just before Trump’s recent announcement of an extended ceasefire. In his letter, he wrote, “This is not an isolated incident but part of a broader and deeply concerning pattern.”

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle stepped in to quell the concerns. He said all federal employees are bound by ethical standards that prohibit profiting from non-public information, and emphasized “no evidence” of wrongdoing. But he also admitted that the CFTC monitors fraud, manipulation, and illegal activities daily.

CME and Intercontinental Exchange—major operators of crude oil futures trading platforms—refused to comment.

In fact, this concern isn’t new. In 2019, a Vanity Fair article hinted that investors made billions trading on news before it was publicly released, prompting the CFTC to investigate whether government leaks fueled huge futures market profits. That investigation ultimately resulted in no enforcement action. Former CFTC enforcement chief Eitan Goren said that derivatives regulators have significant power, but punishing those involved in suspicious trades is very tricky—“much more complex than securities.”

A key legal milestone is the “Eddie Murphy Rule” added to the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. Named after the movie “The Trading Place,” where the protagonist made millions betting on leaked government crop reports, this rule legally defines such behavior as illegal.

But real-world tactics have evolved. Besides oil futures, geopolitical prediction markets are exploding. On Polymarket, bets on geopolitical events jumped from about $100 million in the first week of this year to a record $560 million during the week of April 6. These markets are far less liquid than mainstream futures, making it easier for large funds to influence prices.

The Maduro incident is a typical example. A trader betting on Maduro’s arrest made $400k, with some of the biggest bets occurring just before Trump publicly announced military action. The case even extended to bets on Iran, where orders betting on the fall of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei before summer surged sharply.

In March, Polymarket announced “Enhanced Market Integrity Rules,” explicitly banning three behaviors: trading based on stolen confidential information, illegal leaks, and bets placed by individuals who can influence the outcome. Fraud and market manipulation are also prohibited.

Another prediction platform, Kalshi, took a more direct approach. On Wednesday, they announced suspensions and fines for three congressional candidates accused of “political insider trading” on their bets related to their campaigns. Kalshi listed insider trading bans on their website and said they were taking additional measures in March.

More bets are on the way. But a fundamental question is becoming more urgent: are these seemingly accurate bets based on insider information or just luck? When even the U.S. president says the world has become a casino, and the house might know the roll of the dice in advance—can this game still be fair?