The medium- to long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic, with forward-looking interest rate mismatches creating new opportunities — Three key points to watch in gold today

1. Market review: Spot gold fluctuated and declined intraday, breaking below $4,700, ultimately closing down 0.98% at $4,692.88 per ounce; spot silver closed down 2.93% at $75.41 per ounce.
2. Key indicators: The Cboe Gold ETF Volatility Index has returned to normal levels, indicating sentiment has cooled but risk premiums remain high; CME has reduced margin requirements to release liquidity, likely boosting market activity. On the macro front, employment has eased but not worsened, combined with PMI recovery, reinforcing the “growth recovery + sticky inflation” re-inflation framework, suppressing rate cut expectations.
3. Opinion sharing: Market analysis chief Rhona O'Connell stated that amid a volatile geopolitical environment, professional traders are still reluctant to establish large positions, while ETFs have been reducing holdings over the past few days, and short-term speculators are operating both long and short. abrdn ETF strategist Robert Minter believes that the lagging inflation data and forward-looking interest rates have distorted prices, creating opportunities for investors. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. government debt, it’s hard to see rates continuing to rise; moreover, although war has driven up inflation, it has also further exacerbated debt issues. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the optimistic outlook for gold seems unchanged. Analyst Haresh Menghani believes that structural factors, from central bank demand to systemic risks related to high sovereign debt, still support gold. War is not friendly to gold, but this appears more like a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term reversal of the recent upward trend.