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Analyst: BTC recovery is fragile, Middle East situation may dominate market trends in 2026
ME News message: On April 13 (UTC+8), Coin Bureau founder and crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin said Bitcoin’s recovery currently appears fragile, and the geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures brought by the Middle East war will affect market performance in Q2 2026. Puckrin predicts that rate cuts may not happen until at the earliest in the third or fourth quarter. He believes that for Bitcoin to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices fall to around $80, and economic data remains weak.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000, and trading below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, Bitcoin had broken above $73,000, but it pulled back after the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and Trump’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would be blockaded. In addition, opinions within the Federal Reserve FOMC on rate cuts for 2026 are divided; CME Fedwatch data shows that the probability of keeping rates unchanged at the current level across two upcoming meetings is both above 98%. (Source: MLion)