The European Central Bank is brewing a set of "unconventional interest rate paths": first raising rates, then reversing to cut—this is not oscillation, but crisis pricing.

Core judgment: The market consensus expects no change in the short term.
Latest institutional survey shows: the vast majority of respondents believe the European Central Bank will keep the deposit rate at 2% at the April 30 meeting.
This means: the current phase remains a "watching window," waiting for more conflict impact data to materialize.
Key turning point: a sudden rate hike in June is possible.
But the real variable lies ahead: as a new round of economic forecasts is released, the impact of conflicts on inflation and growth will become clearer.
Market mainstream expectation: a 25 basis point rate hike in June.
This rate hike is not tightening, but "defensive pricing."
The essence of this step is not to curb inflation, but to:
respond to the imported inflation shocks caused by geopolitical conflicts.
Especially against the backdrop of disruptions in the energy supply chain, Europe will face:
slowing or even stagnating cost-push inflation growth.
This is a typical: "stagflation policy dilemma."