Recently, many people have been showing charts of stablecoin supply alongside screenshots of ETF net inflows, then starting to speculate "Off-chain money is coming in = imminent surge." I actually want to pour some cold water: correlation can be very deceptive, an increase in stablecoins might just mean everyone is temporarily holding their funds on-chain waiting for opportunities, or it could be market making, arbitrage, or even risk aversion emotions piling up, which is not the same as "pumping the market."

Also, recently the calendar for staking unlocks and token unlocks has been repeatedly brought up to discuss selling pressure, making the group nervous every time a certain date approaches... Frankly, what truly influences prices is often "who is selling, to whom, and whether there are narratives of someone taking over," rather than that line on the calendar. Anyway, I now pay more attention to the early community chat atmosphere, less to those puzzle-piece causal stories, and then look at...