I'm seeing something interesting happening with Bitcoin that might be worth keeping an eye on. There's a pretty simple pattern that has been repeating since 2015 — basically the 50-week and 100-week moving averages of BTC's price.

Here's how it works: when these two lines cross, it usually marks the bottom of a bear market. It has happened three times — in 2015 when Bitcoin was considered a total failure (like $200), then in 2019, and again in 2022. And you know what's crazy? Every time it crossed, the market started to surge afterward. In 2015, it went from $200 and rose to $20K. In 2019, the same story. In 2022, after the September crossover, it shot up to $126K.

Now in April, we're seeing the price drop significantly (it went from $126k to $77.5K now), but the two moving averages haven't crossed yet. They're getting closer, but the 50-week remains above the 100-week. If history repeats itself, this could mean the bear market isn't over yet, and this recovery we've seen might just be a temporary bounce, not the start of a real bull run.

Of course, patterns are patterns, they don't guarantee anything. But it's interesting to see how this simple indicator has been working for over a decade. If Bitcoin ETFs continue to drive institutional demand, things could change quickly. Worth keeping an eye on.