The likelihood of the U.S. and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement by June 30, 2026, has decreased.

According to ME News on April 24 (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the prediction regarding “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before June 30, 2026,” the probability of the “Yes” option decreased from 63.5% the previous day to 42.5%, a single-day drop of 21.0 percentage points.

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