Evening Bitcoin Market Outlook

The evening Bitcoin market continues to fluctuate within a narrow range, repeatedly shaking out traders inside a triangle convergence pattern. The market rhythm is extremely frustrating.
From a structural perspective, if this rebound follows a standard 1:1 equal rise pattern, the short-term target is around 81,917, but this target will not be reached in one go and must meet two key conditions:
1. Short-term pullbacks must not break below the consolidation zone. If it effectively breaks downward, the market will fall back into the lower box for re-accumulation, and the upward momentum will slow significantly. Rebounds will rely heavily on news-driven stimuli;
2. The price must volume-break through and stabilize above the 78,556 high. Once stabilized at this level, the previous high of 79,443 will be broken through naturally.

Only when both conditions are met can the bulls push toward the ultimate profit-taking target of 81,917. For those holding long positions, it’s crucial to exit decisively once the target is reached. Even if optimistic about the market, it’s recommended to reduce holdings by 80% to avoid greed-driven overleveraging.
Key risk control levels to watch: 77,561. If volume breaks below this level and closes without recovery, the market will sharply retest the core support zone of 76,272–74,890. Subsequent dip-avoidance strategies should focus on signals within the 76,727–74,890 range.

Trading Suggestions:
• Hourly Chart: Volume breakout above 77,862, follow the trend to go long, with the upside target at 78,544–79,443; if unable to hold above 77,862, bullish momentum will lack continuation.

• 4-Hour Chart: Volume breakdown below 77,312, follow the trend to short, with the downside target at 76,098–74,982.