The real risk is not war, but "misjudgment."

Many people worry: Will there be a conflict?
But a greater risk is: Both sides misjudging each other's bottom line.
Iran signals toughness, the United States strengthens military deployments—this in itself is a psychological game.
The problem is:
When both sides are "putting on a show" for each other, it's easy to overdo it.
Many conflicts in history were "not wanting to fight initially, but having to fight in the end."
Once misjudgment occurs:
✔ The escalation of conflict will be very rapid
✔ Market reactions will lag
✔ Risk assets will suddenly collapse
This is the true "black swan."
So the key to judgment is not "how tense it is now,"
but: Are there signs of losing control. #Gate13周年现场直击