🇺🇸⚠️ The 10Y-2Y yield curve just sat at 51 bps going into a Fed meeting.



US 10Y at 4.30%.
2Y at 3.79%.
That's a 51 bp spread — compressed ahead of FOMC Apr 29-30.
Markets price only ~26% odds of a December cut, down from two cuts at the start of the year.

Our Macro catalog tracks the full yield curve alongside crypto flow.

Curve tension this close to a meeting historically precedes volatility prints in risk assets.
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MosaicButterfly
· 10h ago
Now it seems more like the "higher for longer" expectation is being priced in, no wonder the cut odds are dropping all the way down.
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GateUser-3f3455c7
· 12h ago
51bp pushed to this level, the night before the FOMC indeed feels like calm before the storm.
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TideShellLedger
· 12h ago
The macro directory idea is good; many people only look at CPI/point charts, ignoring the fact that the curve structure itself can hint at changes in risk appetite.
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LIONMESSI
· 12h ago
Thank you for your helpful article.
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Tigerheineken
· 12h ago
Cools
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SaveABitOnGasFees
· 12h ago
If there is really a big fluctuation, I am more concerned about how the 2Y reacts; movements in the front end often set the tone more than the 10Y.
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Lemon-FlavoredLiquidation
· 12h ago
Pre-meeting curve compression + rate cut expectation rollback, this combination is not very friendly to altcoins, so you still need to keep your positions in check.
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princeamir
· 12h ago
to be pull
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Only_Trusted_Seller
· 12h ago
thank you for your revew
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MempoolSparrow
· 12h ago
The biggest concern this time is "no rate cut but hawkish guidance"; if yields rise a bit more, crypto inflows could immediately turn into outflows.
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