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There are two possible scenarios for the future economic situation:
The first is persistent deflation, with prices continuously falling, and everyone's expectations for wages and income decreasing accordingly. Housing prices and rents will also keep dropping.
Take the standard of living as an example, it will almost return to what it was around 2013: the commercial property market will revert to that year's level.
Civil servant salaries will stay between 4,000 and 6,000 yuan, with housing prices in Chengdu around 10k yuan per square meter, and in Beijing about 30k yuan per square meter.
You can buy a top-of-the-line car for 400k yuan, and dining out with an average of 50 yuan per person can still be comfortable.
Once everyone gradually accepts this situation, with all living and income standards reverting to levels from over a decade ago and mindsets fully relaxed, the employment rate will slowly start to rise again.
The second scenario is to fully stimulate the internal circulation, maintaining a moderate inflation rate.
Previously, it was believed that new energy vehicles and the stock market could take over the housing market and become the pillars of the economy; now, it’s clear that’s not feasible.
If we cannot find a single, dominant engine for economic growth, we can only rely on multiple sectors working together to fully activate internal circulation, which is necessary to resolve overcapacity and excess labor force issues.
Currently, we are following this path—it's the hardest route to take, but we have no choice.
If we let the first deflation scenario develop unchecked, will pensions and retirement funds also have to decrease?
If the housing market truly collapses across the board, how many debt defaults will it trigger?
These are all unbearable consequences.