I just saw news that multiple warning signals are appearing in the crypto market at this time. The tense situation between the US and Iran has resurfaced, causing oil prices to spike and the crypto market to become heavily unbalanced. Bitcoin, which recently hit a new high, has fallen to $77,640. In just 24 hours, over $260 million in long positions have been liquidated. The market is watching to see if the situation will turn around again.

But what’s more interesting is the analysis from leading investment institutions revealing that the Bitcoin cycle in 2024 is the weakest on record. Forget the previous image of sharp jumps after the halving, because the all-time high price of $125,000 has only grown by 97% from the halving base price, which is incomparable to the 9,294% surge in 2012. Volatility has also decreased to just 50% compared to the past. This indicates that crypto investing is changing; the market is maturing. Large financial institutions are stepping in to control, and the old four-year cycle theory may no longer apply.

Another hot topic is stablecoins, whose total market value has surpassed $300 billion. Analysts estimate that in the short term, they still won’t threaten traditional banks because the US payment system remains fast and highly trusted. Current regulations also prohibit stablecoins from paying yields, but this has become a heated battleground in Congress. The CLARITY Act draft law has stalled after the crypto industry strongly opposed the ban on interest payments. If future laws allow stablecoins to pay interest comparable to bank deposits, commercial banks will face a capital outflow crisis.

What has recently ignited the crypto world is the RAVE coin controversy, accused of price manipulation. The entertainment project RaveDAO was exposed for its coin soaring from $0.25 to nearly $28 in just a few days, then crashing more than 90%. On-chain investigators suggest that insiders may hold over 90% of the coins. Major trading platforms have issued urgent statements to investigate immediately. RaveDAO denied the allegations, explaining that they planned to sell coins to fund further development.

Crypto investments require extreme caution. Transparency remains a major wound in the Web3 world. This costly lesson reminds investors that true decentralization cannot happen if most tokens are still concentrated in the hands of the creators. The Fear and Greed index today is at 29. The market remains in fear. Anyone considering entering crypto investments now must prioritize thorough research and risk management.