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I noticed today a wave of severe turbulence in the global markets, and the main reason is the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East that has strongly impacted supply chains. Markets are reacting sharply, and investors are seeking safe havens.
Energy prices have skyrocketed, with crude oil rising about 5% and surpassing $82 per barrel, and European gas increasing by 30% due to fears of supply disruptions. This sharp rise is putting real pressure on global markets.
On the currency front, the DXY dollar index continued its upward trend, rising by 0.84% to reach 99.39 points. Investors prefer dollar liquidity in these uncertain times. Gold declined about 3.5% to $5,173 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin dropped below $67,000 amid broad selling pressure.
In the United States, analysts are watching for employment data and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report. Expectations indicate an addition of 55,000 jobs in the private sector, but the ISM Services Index will be important to gauge the economy’s resilience against rising costs.
In the Gulf, markets resumed trading with precautionary measures. Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets implemented a minimum price decline limit of only 5% to reduce volatility. Emirati banks showed strength, with Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank halting strong dividend distributions for 2025.
Asian tech stocks experienced their worst daily performance in months. Samsung and major technology companies lost significant market value due to fears of supply disruptions and declining global demand. On the other hand, Tesla lost its leading position in electric vehicles to the Chinese BYD.
U.S. bonds attract investors as a hedging tool, and their long-term yields slightly decreased. The U.S. budget deficit fell by 17% during the first months of the fiscal year, but challenges remain with continued high interest rates and increased defense spending.
The DXY dollar index remains the primary indicator that investors watch during this period because it reflects safe haven strength. All eyes are on upcoming U.S. economic data and crude oil inventories, which will determine market directions in the coming days.