I just noticed that the bull market is facing quite a number of critical issues. Bitcoin is currently around $77.65K, but in reality, the market is panicking, because options-market data shows that institutional investors are buying downside risk protection—paying 10% more than usual. This is a signal telling us that they’re worried the market could drop sharply.

What’s interesting is that Glassnode revealed that more than 43% of investors are still trapped in losses, and they sell every time the price rebounds. At the same time, Bitcoin miners have to deal with rising costs. The Hashprice index has fallen to $30, so they’ve turned their attention to AI projects instead, causing the bull market to lose support from this group.

Another thing to watch is Strategy, which has accumulated Bitcoin with a cost basis of around $76,000 and has become an important price ceiling. If it can break through this resistance, buying demand could return. But in the short term, pressure from investors waiting to get back to breakeven, along with miners who have given up, continues to weigh on the market.

From a political perspective, the good news is that Donald Trump is preparing to put forward Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh is one of the staunch supporters of Bitcoin, viewing it as the new gold. If he passes the vote, future U.S. monetary policy could become more open to digital assets. This is a positive, historically significant signal for the bull market.

However, there’s another side to the problem: digital asset custody companies are running into a crisis. Investment inflows have plunged to $555 million per month, the lowest level since October 2024. The era of just buying and holding seems to be over. These companies need to find ways to generate revenue through staking or DeFi lending to survive the slowdown.

One noteworthy update is that Morgan Stanley is seriously moving into the Bitcoin ETF market. It has submitted documents to the SEC to establish the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, bringing in BNY Mellon and Coinbase to manage it. In the latest week, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $683 million. These leading institutions are signaling that there’s still room for the bull market to grow. Bitcoin has already confirmed its status as a mainstream asset.

Today’s Fear and Greed index is 22, which suggests there’s quite a lot of fear. But this could be an opportunity for those who believe in the long-term bull market. Everything hinges on whether the market can break through the $76,000 level.