Seeing a large transfer on the blockchain and immediately hearing the group shout "Whale is opening a position, follow now"… Hold on. Many times, these actions are more like hedging: one side is stacking spot/perpetual positions, while the other is lending out coins or opening short positions, so the net exposure isn't as big as you think. Honestly, it depends on how the funds move afterward—whether they continue to add in batches, transfer to exchange matching zones, or if the turnover is quick; just looking at one big transfer can easily be fooled by fake moves, I've fallen for it too. Recently, retail traders complaining about MEV and unfair ordering isn't without reason; with the same on-chain signals, others might have already front-run the order. Anyway, I now prefer to be a bit slower: confirm it's not hedging/arbitrage, then consider small positions. If I miss out, I miss out—at least I won't be led by the rhythm.

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