Tonight I drew positions/time/emotions on the chart again, and I noticed that the moment I see phrases like “re-staking + shared security,” and talk of stacked/compounded yield, I automatically treat the risk as if it weren’t stacked too. To put it plainly: the returns go up, and the tail-risk exposure also increases—often in the kind of correlation you can’t see.

Recently, whenever there are big on-chain transfers, or whenever exchanges’ hot and cold wallets move, people start saying “smart money is coming/going.” I also get a bit restless and want to follow along with the narrative I’m imagining—but when I go back to review, the real question is this: in this re-staking setup, what security assumptions are actually being bundled together? If one layer goes wrong, will it cascade? Anyway, I’d rather make a little less now. I’ll split up the positions so that if we hit an extreme market move, at least I won’t get pierced through by a single needle. That’s it for now—I’m going to sleep.