CITIC Securities: After the group-buying trend ends, excess returns often appear in non-hot industries rather than in sectors that are "opposed" to popular industries.

CITIC Securities research reports believe that, among the eight extreme consolidation periods since 2007, the current duration ranks second. After the consolidation phase ends, excess returns often appear in industries that are not popular but have fundamental logic, rather than sectors that are “opposed” to popular industries. Currently, if an industry is severely siphoned off by AI hardware, it likely also has its own flaws. For the market, what to watch out for next is that after commodity volatility decreases, the return of fundamental-based pricing funds and the continued rise in energy and chemical commodity prices will begin to be priced in. At that time, the market will start to price in the real economic impact caused by supply chain disruptions, with sustained price increases and better-than-expected profits becoming key clues. Domestic supply-side policies should not be overlooked either; “Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction” and the “Carbon Peak Evaluation Measures” are two recent key documents, and their release times also reflect the urgency of accelerating energy saving and carbon reduction under the complex global geopolitical environment. In terms of allocation, continue to adhere to China’s advantageous manufacturing and actively seek varieties with supply and demand gaps.