Recently, looking at data like stablecoin supply and ETF net inflows, the group got lively and started saying "So it's going up now"… I really want to pour some cold water: correlation does not equal causation. Honestly, many times it's just the same group of people moving assets at the same time, and when you stack it all together, it looks like an "answer." I often get fooled by these false signals in my backtests too; tweak the parameters a bit and it looks even more convincing, but as soon as it goes live, it gets exposed.

Right now, everyone in the market is waiting: waiting for confirmation, waiting for a pullback, waiting to clarify their thoughts. Especially when incidents like cross-chain bridge hacks or oracle errors happen, everyone suddenly becomes cautious, preferring to wait a few more on-chain confirmations… This kind of "waiting" sentiment itself can influence the flow of funds in and out, so don’t rush to treat one line as a causal chain. Anyway, I’ll keep sticking to risk management, do less trading, and wait until I’m less eager to jump to conclusions.