🔥Opinion: Insider information is the core of market prediction, with informed individuals driving prices closer to the truth

On April 26, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket faced regulatory pressure, with multiple countries' law enforcement agencies planning to ban insider trading. But Robin Hanson, the founder of prediction market theory and a professor at George Mason University, believes that insider information is precisely the key to prediction markets, and strict bans are wrong. He points out that insider trading is common in traditional financial markets, and prediction markets rely on informed individuals to push prices toward the truth, surpassing news and polls. Hanson advocates for a balanced approach to insider trading and fairness, suggesting organizations can protect secrets through contracts, but society also needs the flow of information and should not exclude ordinary people from participation under the pretext of “elite control of information.” He recommends participants bear their own risks and emphasizes that prediction markets are democratic tools for information aggregation,…