Opinion: Quantum computing will not crack Bitcoin by 2026, but preparations should be made in advance

On December 25, according to Cointelegraph, experts from institutions such as Argentum AI and Coin Bureau stated in interviews that the threat of quantum computing to cryptocurrencies in 2026 remains theoretical rather than imminent. Clark Alexander, head of Argentum AI, said that the commercial application of quantum computing in 2026 is expected to be extremely limited. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, mentioned that 90% of the quantum threat theory is marketing hype, and it will be at least ten years before computers capable of cracking existing cryptography appear. Nevertheless, experts pointed out that public key cryptography relied upon by blockchain networks like Bitcoin carries potential risks. Sofiia Kireieva, an expert at Boosty Labs, noted that elliptic curve digital signature algorithms (ECDSA) used for private and public keys are the weakest link, while the vulnerability of SHA-256 hash functions is relatively low. Ahmad Shadid, founder of O Foundation, stated that address reuse significantly increases the risk of being cracked. Currently, about 25% to 30% of BTC (approximately 4 million coins) are stored in addresses with exposed public keys, which are more vulnerable to quantum computer attacks. Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, warned that the real threat in 2026 is not system collapse but attackers collecting as much encrypted data as possible to decrypt in the future when technology matures. Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, described this as a “collect first, decrypt later” attack scenario. To address potential threats, the cryptography community has taken action. Qastle announced in November plans to upgrade underlying cryptography to provide quantum-level security protection for hot wallets. Experts recommend users avoid address reuse and migrate funds promptly when quantum-resistant wallets become available. Although 2026 will not see the end of quantum computing, it will become a high-level risk factor in the field of cryptographic security.