Polymarket's "No" side betting on "Christ's Second Coming" can earn a 5.5% annualized return, outperforming U.S. Treasury bonds

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the prediction market Polymarket’s recent contract around “Will Jesus Christ return to Earth in 2025” attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding in 2025. Since the event was ultimately deemed “No,” participants who bet on “Will not happen” at the high point in April received an annualized return of about 5.5%, outperforming the US Treasury yields of the same period. The report notes that the contract once maintained a “second coming” probability above 3%, reflecting the pricing characteristics of prediction markets intertwined with sentiment, faith, and speculation. Bloomberg also pointed out that while similar contracts have increased attention to prediction markets, they have also sparked controversy in academia. Some scholars believe that such highly entertainment-oriented or symbolic events may undermine the informational value of prediction markets in serious public issues. As the contract is re-launched in the 2026 version, the current market still assigns about a 2% probability to the event occurring, reflecting the prediction market’s continued attraction of speculative funds under the “low probability, high return” narrative. (Bloomberg)