#Rise of Solana Treasury Holders  Expectations for Solana in September

Solana experienced a volatile period in August. While the token struggled to stay above the $210 level, it was unable to maintain its momentum and fell back into the range. Currently, the Solana price is trading around $205, down 4.5% in the last 24 hours and down around 1% last week. Monthly gains remain above 13%, while the yearly trend remains positive at nearly 50%.

However, September could challenge this uptrend, as on-chain and technical signals point to potential weakness.

A Key Indicator: Percent In-Profit Supply

One of the most important metrics is the percent in-profit supply, which measures the number of coins whose value exceeds their cost basis.

This metric has now fallen to around 90% after reaching a six-month high of 96.56% on August 28.

Historical data shows that such highs often signal corrections in Solana's price. When the metric reached 96% on July 13th, the Solana price was trading around $205 before falling 23% to $158.

Again, when the metric reached 94.31% on August 13th, a 12% correction was triggered from $201 to $176. Then, another peak of 95.13% on August 23rd triggered an 8% decline from $204 to $187.

With the metric near record highs again, the risk of a deeper correction in Solana's price in September increases.

Cryptocurrency Exchange Balances and Sell-Off Risk

This sell-off risk is also supported by cryptocurrency exchange balances. The amount of SOL held on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges increased from under 30 million to over 32 million tokens on August 28th. Increasing balances typically indicate that holders are preparing to sell.

This correlation is quite clear. When balances rose above 32 million on August 14th, the Solana price fell 8% from $192 to $176 within a few days.

Now, as balances are rising again, a similar pattern is occurring, indicating renewed downward pressure on the SOL price in September.

Technical Indicators and Bearish Outlook

Technical indicators are also consistent with this bearish outlook. Solana is trading within a rising wedge on the weekly chart: this is a pattern that typically signals weakening momentum and could lead to a downward continuation or reversal.

If Solana price breaks the $195 and $182 levels, the decline could extend to $160, representing a 15-20% retracement. Interestingly, such retracements have previously been seen when cryptocurrency exchange balances and in-the-money supply percentages peak. A drop below $182 would confirm a breakout of the bearish pattern.

However, bulls could still gain strength. A weekly close above $217—the recent local high—would invalidate the bearish influence of the wedge pattern and open the door to higher targets. Until then, the trend remains bearish.

This bearish technical structure comes against a backdrop of generally positive seasonality. Since 2021, Solana has gained 29%, 5.3%, 8.2%, and 12.5% ​​in September. However, with high in-profit supply and increasing cryptocurrency exchange balances, 2025 could be the year this streak is broken.

Unless SOL makes a decisive close above $217, Solana price may struggle in September despite the positive push from past performance and optimism surrounding the ETF.