#我在Gate广场过新年 BTC$66,800 resistance level tug-of-war, a desperate counterattack or a trap for trapping more buyers?
BTC briefly touched a low of $66,300 intraday, rebounded to a high of $67,288, showing a narrow range consolidation pattern at low levels. Bulls struggled to hold the line at $66,000, but resistance above $68,000-$70,000 remains heavy, and the rebound strength is clearly insufficient.
⚠️ Market Deep Game: Five Key Signals
1️⃣ Fear Index Bottoming Out Slightly, but Still in Extreme Fear Zone: 11 points (slightly rebounded after hitting a record low of 5 points on February 6)
Historical comparison: Still in the “Extreme Fear” zone, far from the normal bottom range (20-30 points)
Google searches for “Bitcoin zeroing out” hit a record high, retail panic sentiment spreading
Interpretation: Although the sentiment indicator has slightly improved, market confidence has not truly recovered. Historical experience shows that a real bottom often requires the fear index to stabilize and rise above 20 along with increased trading volume to confirm.
2️⃣ ETF Outflows Continue, Institutions Keep Retreating
Outflow of $133.3 million on February 18 alone, BlackRock iBIT outflow of $84.2 million leading to a total net outflow of over $500 million in February, the second-largest monthly outflow on record. European investors remain relatively stable, but U.S. institutional funds are clearly shifting to defensive positions.
Interpretation: Institutional funds are shifting from “bottom-fishing mode” to “stop-loss mode,” with ETF continuous outflows reflecting Wall Street’s lack of confidence in BTC’s short-term trend. Unless ETF data turns into sustained net inflows, the bottom cannot be confirmed.
3️⃣ Whale Game: Large Holders Increasing vs Retail Panic Selling
On-chain data reveals conflicting phenomena: whales continue to buy the dip—wallet addresses holding 1,000-100,000 BTC increased by 70,000 BTC in February (worth about $4.6 billion), the largest single-month increase since November last year.
Retail panic selling—small wallet addresses continue to reduce holdings, exchange net inflows increase, showing a “whale sucking shrimp spitting” pattern, but whale trading volume plummeted 72%: large transfer activity sharply declined over the past 14 days, indicating whales are quietly accumulating but not aggressively attacking.
Key contradiction: The inflow ratio of big whales increased from 0.4 to 0.62, indicating quiet accumulation by large holders, but high-leverage institutions like MicroStrategy face liquidation risks and may be forced to sell, causing a stampede.
Interpretation: Smart money is gradually building positions at the bottom but not fully bullish, implying that while the current level has value, risks are not fully cleared. Retail panic selling provides cheap chips for whales, but this does not mean a short-term rebound is imminent.
4️⃣ Technicals: Critical Support Levels Wavering
The 200-week moving average (around $70,000) has been broken, multiple rebounds failed to recover $66,000-$68,000 as the new battleground: if it falls below $66,000, the next target is $62,000-$60,000.
Deribit warns: a return to $85,000 is needed to confirm the continuation of the bull market; otherwise, the long-term upward trend is broken. MACD, RSI, and other indicators: after oversold conditions on the daily chart, slight recovery, but the weekly chart remains in a downtrend, and the technical outlook remains bearish.
5️⃣ Macro Environment: Fed Divisions Widen, Geopolitical Risks Rise
Increased monetary policy uncertainty
FOMC minutes from January show diverging views among officials: some even consider the possibility of rate hikes, hawkish stance exceeding market expectations: only two rate cuts expected in 2026 (25 basis points each in June and December), with very limited easing space. US Dollar Index (DXY): 97.66, consolidating above 97.5, a strong dollar suppresses liquidity in risk assets.
Geopolitical clouds thickening
US-Iran tensions escalate: international oil prices surge to the highest since last summer, risk aversion sentiment intensifies.
Uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies: although threats of tariffs on some European countries have been withdrawn, the shadow of trade wars remains. Safe-haven assets diverge: Gold at $4,956/oz (+1.62%), a strong rebound approaching the $5,000 level; Silver at $79.14/oz (+5.73%), violently rebounding from $72 lows.
Dual support from safe-haven and industrial attributes, but BTC as “digital gold” has not followed: traditional safe-haven assets recover while cryptocurrencies remain weak, exposing market doubts about its safe-haven properties.
Interpretation: The macro environment is extremely unfavorable for BTC—expectations of Fed rate cuts have been dashed, suppressing liquidity. Geopolitical risks should favor safe-haven assets, but BTC has not benefited, reflecting the market’s view of it as a “risk asset” rather than a “hedge.”
BTC briefly touched a low of $66,300 intraday, rebounded to a high of $67,288, showing a narrow range consolidation pattern at low levels. Bulls struggled to hold the line at $66,000, but resistance above $68,000-$70,000 remains heavy, and the rebound strength is clearly insufficient.
⚠️ Market Deep Game: Five Key Signals
1️⃣ Fear Index Bottoming Out Slightly, but Still in Extreme Fear Zone: 11 points (slightly rebounded after hitting a record low of 5 points on February 6)
Historical comparison: Still in the “Extreme Fear” zone, far from the normal bottom range (20-30 points)
Google searches for “Bitcoin zeroing out” hit a record high, retail panic sentiment spreading
Interpretation: Although the sentiment indicator has slightly improved, market confidence has not truly recovered. Historical experience shows that a real bottom often requires the fear index to stabilize and rise above 20 along with increased trading volume to confirm.
2️⃣ ETF Outflows Continue, Institutions Keep Retreating
Outflow of $133.3 million on February 18 alone, BlackRock iBIT outflow of $84.2 million leading to a total net outflow of over $500 million in February, the second-largest monthly outflow on record. European investors remain relatively stable, but U.S. institutional funds are clearly shifting to defensive positions.
Interpretation: Institutional funds are shifting from “bottom-fishing mode” to “stop-loss mode,” with ETF continuous outflows reflecting Wall Street’s lack of confidence in BTC’s short-term trend. Unless ETF data turns into sustained net inflows, the bottom cannot be confirmed.
3️⃣ Whale Game: Large Holders Increasing vs Retail Panic Selling
On-chain data reveals conflicting phenomena: whales continue to buy the dip—wallet addresses holding 1,000-100,000 BTC increased by 70,000 BTC in February (worth about $4.6 billion), the largest single-month increase since November last year.
Retail panic selling—small wallet addresses continue to reduce holdings, exchange net inflows increase, showing a “whale sucking shrimp spitting” pattern, but whale trading volume plummeted 72%: large transfer activity sharply declined over the past 14 days, indicating whales are quietly accumulating but not aggressively attacking.
Key contradiction: The inflow ratio of big whales increased from 0.4 to 0.62, indicating quiet accumulation by large holders, but high-leverage institutions like MicroStrategy face liquidation risks and may be forced to sell, causing a stampede.
Interpretation: Smart money is gradually building positions at the bottom but not fully bullish, implying that while the current level has value, risks are not fully cleared. Retail panic selling provides cheap chips for whales, but this does not mean a short-term rebound is imminent.
4️⃣ Technicals: Critical Support Levels Wavering
The 200-week moving average (around $70,000) has been broken, multiple rebounds failed to recover $66,000-$68,000 as the new battleground: if it falls below $66,000, the next target is $62,000-$60,000.
Deribit warns: a return to $85,000 is needed to confirm the continuation of the bull market; otherwise, the long-term upward trend is broken. MACD, RSI, and other indicators: after oversold conditions on the daily chart, slight recovery, but the weekly chart remains in a downtrend, and the technical outlook remains bearish.
5️⃣ Macro Environment: Fed Divisions Widen, Geopolitical Risks Rise
Increased monetary policy uncertainty
FOMC minutes from January show diverging views among officials: some even consider the possibility of rate hikes, hawkish stance exceeding market expectations: only two rate cuts expected in 2026 (25 basis points each in June and December), with very limited easing space. US Dollar Index (DXY): 97.66, consolidating above 97.5, a strong dollar suppresses liquidity in risk assets.
Geopolitical clouds thickening
US-Iran tensions escalate: international oil prices surge to the highest since last summer, risk aversion sentiment intensifies.
Uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies: although threats of tariffs on some European countries have been withdrawn, the shadow of trade wars remains. Safe-haven assets diverge: Gold at $4,956/oz (+1.62%), a strong rebound approaching the $5,000 level; Silver at $79.14/oz (+5.73%), violently rebounding from $72 lows.
Dual support from safe-haven and industrial attributes, but BTC as “digital gold” has not followed: traditional safe-haven assets recover while cryptocurrencies remain weak, exposing market doubts about its safe-haven properties.
Interpretation: The macro environment is extremely unfavorable for BTC—expectations of Fed rate cuts have been dashed, suppressing liquidity. Geopolitical risks should favor safe-haven assets, but BTC has not benefited, reflecting the market’s view of it as a “risk asset” rather than a “hedge.”
:
