2026 Market Outlook — A Review of Investment Opportunities for Next Year

Let's start with the main points.

The opportunities in China's stock market will be limited next year; the index has already peaked, and only a few sectors may experience a rally. Most other sectors will likely fluctuate at high levels.

The US stock bull market could last until around Q3 next year before reaching a phase top, providing quite a few opportunities.

In commodities, gold could reach a maximum of 4700; other non-ferrous metals are in the process of hitting their peaks and are probably expected to top out in Q1 next year; crude oil is set to start rising, with an expected increase from now until early 2026, though the maximum gain may be just doubling, reaching just over 100 USD would be ideal.

Currently, my main holdings in A-shares are chemical ETFs, coal ETFs, and a few oil stocks, with plans to hold until Q3 next year. The chemical ETF will be traded around the Shanghai Composite Index for swings, and since coal ETFs are still at the bottom, I will hold onto them.

In the past two weeks, I just bought back Nvidia (NVDA), Meta, and Microsoft. I plan to take advantage of opportunities for one or two swings and hold until Q3 next year to sell everything. Target prices are: NVDA at 250, Meta at 950, and Microsoft at 630. If Tesla reaches a new high and then drops back to around 350 in the coming weeks, I will consider buying.

A quick note on Bitcoin: I believe Bitcoin may drop to 60,000–70,000 USD in Q1 next year, which would be a good buying opportunity. In Q2 or Q3, there could be a doubling rally from over 60,000 to 130,000 USD.

I will review this quarterly.