#劳动力市场 Labor costs in the United States have slowed to 3.5%, hitting a four-year low—this signal is worth following.

On the surface, this seems to be good news for alleviating inflation. However, what deserves more caution is the underlying logic: the number of job postings is declining, layoffs have risen to the highest level since early 2023, and the voluntary resignation rate has fallen to the lowest since 2020. The labor market is clearly cooling, but price pressures remain strong—this is a precursor to stagflation.

The Federal Reserve is already internally divided. After three consecutive rate cuts, officials have developed an "unusual divergence" regarding the future policy direction. Those pushing for rate cuts want to continue easing to alleviate employment pressure, while hawks are worried about runaway prices. This indecisive attitude is the most dangerous; the stagflation of the 1970s became entrenched in such "stop-and-go" policies.

The key variable is the upcoming economic data. Each interest rate cut will lose more support from participants, which means that market uncertainty is rising. In terms of on-chain capital flows, this type of policy divergence period is usually accompanied by marginal adjustments of large funds—neither daring to heavily bet on bullishness nor searching for risk hedging points. It is worth tracking the position changes of institutions and the flow of stablecoins.