# 劳动力市场

#劳动力市场 The Fed's rate cut at the end of the year has made the key signal very clear—there may only be one rate cut opportunity in 2026, and future developments will depend on the labor market's performance. This actually reflects a deeper reality: how dependent the TradFi system is on employment data.
But this is exactly the core I want to discuss with everyone—in the world of centralized decision-making finance, all policies are controlled by a few individuals, and the fluctuations of the market depend on discussions in a certain conference room. Just look at Bitcoin's performanc

#劳动力市场 The Fed has cut interest rates again, but this time it feels a bit off 😅 A 25 basis point cut looks good, but only one more next year? That's just ridiculous!
The key is Powell's implication — don't expect more good news before the labor market worsens further. In other words, he is dousing cold water on all the cryptocurrencies that are hoping for a surge. A Goldman Sachs analyst directly stated that the Fed's "preventive rate cuts" have come to an end, and now it all depends on whether the employment data continues to collapse.
At one point, Bitcoin broke 94,000, whi

#劳动力市场 Powell is going to fight a desperate battle now, with half of the Fed opposing interest rate cuts directly targeting him. This is a scene we haven't seen in decades!
The key issue is whether the labor market is facing weak demand or a contraction in supply due to reduced immigration. These two logics are too far apart— the former supports continued cuts, while the latter requires holding steady. The unemployment rate has already soared to 4.4%, and non-farm data has also taken a hit, but price pressures are still firmly pushing against the ceiling💀.
The curse of stagflation in the

#劳动力市场 Recently, there has been division within the Fed, with half of the officials opposing interest rate cuts, which is an important signal for us, the profit-seeking crowd. The labor market is cooling down, and the unemployment rate has reached its highest level since the end of 2021, but inflationary pressures remain—this "stagflation" situation has put decision-makers in a dilemma.
Here are the key points I've summarized for you: First, the rise in market uncertainty means that volatility in the crypto space will increase, and airdrop projects may accelerate their fundraising pace du

#劳动力市场 The growth rate of labor costs has fallen to a four-year low, and this signal is worth following. Q3 data shows an annual rise of only 3.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.8%. On the surface, inflationary pressure has eased, but subsequent actions are the key.
From an on-chain perspective, such macro turning points usually trigger a reallocation of funds—on one hand, interest rate cut expectations support risk assets, while on the other hand, stagflation risks remain a hidden danger. There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve, and with Powell's term nearing its end, th

#劳动力市场 The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, as can be clearly seen from the signals in the dot plot—only one expected rate cut of 25bp each in 2026 and 2027, far lower than the market's previous expectations. Key variables have clearly pointed to the labor market.
Let’s look at a few data points: The year-on-year growth rate of labor costs in Q3 has dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in four years; the unemployment rate has slightly increased, and job growth has significantly slowed down; the number of layoffs has risen to the highest level since early 2023. All these

#劳动力市场 The Fed has completed its preventive interest rate cut measures, and the next story depends on how the labor market unfolds. This set of data is quite interesting—labor costs in the third quarter have fallen to a rise of 3.5%, the lowest in four years; at the same time, the number of layoffs has risen to the highest level since the beginning of 2023, while the voluntary resignation rate has dropped to the lowest since 2020. What does this indicate? The chips in the market are being reallocated, companies are shrinking cost expectations, while laborers are adopting a wait-and-see approa

#劳动力市场 Recently, I've been following the news about the Fed, and I'm getting more and more confused 🤔 Labor cost growth has dropped to a four-year low, and inflation seems to be easing. Isn't this a good thing? Why are people in the comments still worried about "stagflation risk"?
After searching a bit, I understand now that although inflation is decreasing, the job market is also cooling down, with layoffs reaching new highs and young people's wages still falling... In this case, the Fed finds itself in a dilemma—continuing to cut interest rates would be criticized for not t

#劳动力市场 Seeing that the Dutch International Bank expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2026, my first reaction is not excitement, but caution.
Have you noticed that now the unemployment rate is low, the stock market is at historical highs, and inflation is still at 3%? Logically, the Fed has no reason to cut interest rates. But the banks have already started to lay the groundwork for rate cuts - citing things like falling energy prices, slowing rent growth, and weakening wage growth. In other words, they are creating public opinion for future easing policies.
What does this mean for t

#劳动力市场 Labor costs in the United States have slowed to 3.5%, hitting a four-year low—this signal is worth following.
On the surface, this seems to be good news for alleviating inflation. However, what deserves more caution is the underlying logic: the number of job postings is declining, layoffs have risen to the highest level since early 2023, and the voluntary resignation rate has fallen to the lowest since 2020. The labor market is clearly cooling, but price pressures remain strong—this is a precursor to stagflation.
The Federal Reserve is already internally divided. After three consecutiv