#劳动力市场 The Fed has completed its preventive interest rate cut measures, and the next story depends on how the labor market unfolds. This set of data is quite interesting—labor costs in the third quarter have fallen to a rise of 3.5%, the lowest in four years; at the same time, the number of layoffs has risen to the highest level since the beginning of 2023, while the voluntary resignation rate has dropped to the lowest since 2020. What does this indicate? The chips in the market are being reallocated, companies are shrinking cost expectations, while laborers are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

The dot plot shows only one 25bp rate cut in both 2026 and 2027, which means that the hawks have successfully thwarted a path of aggressive easing. Goldman Sachs has also made it very clear that labor market data needs to "further weaken" to provide a legitimate reason for subsequent rate cuts. In other words, the Fed has passed the ball to the employment data.

From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, this is an observation time window. Bitcoin did indeed surge past 94,000 after Powell's speech, but immediately fell back to over 91k. The market is digesting the policy shift—from interest rate cut expectations to data dependence. What to keep an eye on next are the U.S. monthly employment reports and unemployment rate indicators; the direction of these data will directly affect liquidity expectations and asset allocation.