#劳动力市场 The growth rate of labor costs has fallen to a four-year low, and this signal is worth following. Q3 data shows an annual rise of only 3.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.8%. On the surface, inflationary pressure has eased, but subsequent actions are the key.

From an on-chain perspective, such macro turning points usually trigger a reallocation of funds—on one hand, interest rate cut expectations support risk assets, while on the other hand, stagflation risks remain a hidden danger. There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve, and with Powell's term nearing its end, there are only three more meetings left, raising doubts about policy coherence.

Key highlights: The number of layoffs has risen to the highest level since early 2023, and the voluntary resignation rate has hit a new low since 2020. The labor market is indeed cooling down, but prices still have stickiness. In this environment, institutional capital flows will be very cautious—neither daring to overly bet on interest rate cuts nor preventing the reappearance of stagflation.

It is recommended to follow the movements of large addresses in stablecoins and derivative contracts, as they often reflect changes in institutional expectations of policy in advance.