# macro

Next Fed Chair: The Decision That Could Define Markets in 2026
As 2026 begins, global markets are quietly locking onto one powerful question:
Who will become the next Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve?
This isn’t just a political headline. It’s a decision that can shape liquidity, interest rates, and risk appetite across every major asset class — from bonds and equities to Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Speculation is growing around a shortlist of candidates under White House review, with Kevin Warsh often mentioned as a leading contender. He’s widely viewed as disciplined on inflation and cautio

Kansas Steps Into the Future!
Kansas has introduced a bill to create a $BTC & crypto Strategic Reserve. No hype, по bold promises! Just a state starting to think about how digital assets fit into the bigger financial picture.
Policy moves like this usually matter more than headlines!
#Bitcoin #Macro #Insights #CryptoNews

⚠️ #JapanBondMarketSell-Off — Macro Moves That Could Shift Global Markets
Japan’s 30Y & 40Y bond yields jumped over 25 bps, signaling a potential pivot after plans to ease fiscal tightening and boost spending.
Traditionally associated with ultra-low yields, Japan’s move could ripple across global capital flows and interest rate expectations.
📊 Why This Matters
Higher yields in Japan may put pressure on risk assets worldwide, including crypto
Could trigger broader repricing in global bond and equity markets
Macro effects often arrive slowly but with lasting impact
💡 Key Question
Is this a tem

#TariffTensionsHitCryptoMarket
Renewed tariff threats are shaking global
markets, and crypto is feeling the pressure. After a brief surge, Bitcoin pulled back sharply as investors
moved into risk-off mode, reacting
to fears of escalating trade tensions.
So what’s really happening?
🔹 Macro fear > fundamentals (short term)
Right now, the market looks emotion-driven.
Headlines around tariffs and trade wars are pushing traders to reduce risk
quickly, leading to sell-offs and liquidations in BTC and altcoins.
🔹 Is the market pricing in escalation?
Partially. Some downside is pricing in higher
un

Gate Square Daily | Jan 20 📊
Macro meets crypto—here’s what’s shaping the market today 👇
🔹 Fed Outlook
Markets are pricing a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. Risk assets are breathing easier, but traders remain cautious ahead of future guidance.
🔹 Bitcoin OG Move
A long-term Bitcoin holder from 13 years ago just moved 909 BTC—an unrealized gain of roughly 13,900×. These rare movements always spark speculation, but they also highlight BTC’s long-term value narrative.
🔹 ETH Treasury Activity
FG Nexus, with around $120M in ETH, sold 2,50

#CPIDataAnalysis
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) goes beyond being an economic indicator; it serves as a significant market trigger. Each CPI release can alter expectations regarding inflation, interest rates, liquidity, and ultimately affect risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Here's a guide to interpreting CPI beyond its headline figures 👇
1️⃣ Importance of CPI
CPI measures the pace at which prices rise for everyday goods and services, crucially addressing:
➡️ Is inflation slowing down sufficiently for central banks to ease policies?
A lower CPI may signal potential rate cuts a

📊 Macro Watch: BOJ, Yen Liquidity & Crypto Risk
JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates twice in 2025, with policy rates potentially reaching 1.25% by end-2026. If this plays out, it could mark a meaningful shift after years of ultra-loose Japanese monetary policy.
🔹 Why the yen matters:
The yen has long funded global risk-taking through the yen carry trade. Rising BOJ rates could tighten yen liquidity and reduce leverage flowing into risk assets.
🔹 Carry trade unwind risk:
If Japanese yields rise and the yen strengthens, leveraged positions funded in yen may unwind. Historically,

THE DOLLAR FEELS DIFFERENT THIS YEAR 🇺🇸
The steady decline of the US Dollar in 2025 feels more structural than emotional. No panic — just persistent weakness.
🔻 With the *Federal Reserve easing rates* multiple times this year, and *softer economic data* (cooling jobs, lower inflation), global sentiment is shifting.
🌍 Capital is quietly flowing elsewhere — in search of stability and growth.
💹 Crypto is no longer just a trade — it’s becoming a serious alternative narrative.
🧠 Smart investors stay flexible.
📉 Don’t chase noise. Watch macro moves.
📈 Prepare for long-term trends.

CME data: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 86.7%.
Odaily
Dec 24, 2025
#Macro
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 86.7%.
The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by March next year is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 5.0%. (GoldTouch)
#2025GateYearEndSummary #CryptoMarket