AxelAdlerJr

The market is now classified as High Stress.
This is the phase where noise dominates, trends break, and most participants get chopped.
Yesterday I published a detailed breakdown of this model on Substack - what it measures, when it works, and where it fails. Read it before you misread this market.

Macro improved slightly vs yesterday. But the market is still a coin flip.
Risk score moved to +0.65. Regime is BALANCED, not bullish. Rates are neutral. Curve is steep. SPX remains in a bear trend. Signal quality is weak. Noise still dominates trend.

$90K - STH Defense Line: Hold or Capitulation
Lose this zone and two cohorts go underwater at once.
That is where real selling pressure usually begins.
Morning Brief #88 👇 + 🎧 Audio Debate

Current Status + Model 👇
Market Regime: Correction
STH ZoneStress (0.90-0.95)

The president needs to make a reasonable statement on Greenland before U.S. markets open - the VIX is already at 20.

Asian and European markets are showing 🔴 COMPOSITE: -3.50 - worse than yesterday.

Gold sets a new record: 4,722 USD/t.oz

Sellers Attack on Two Fronts: Derivatives and Spot
New ☕️Adler AM👇

The average hashrate has fallen below 1,000 EH/s.

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, boosted by Trump’s comments indicating he may not nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair.

Deleveraging: Sentiment Crashed from 80% to 45% After $205M Long Liquidations
☕️ Morning Brief 0086 👇 + 🎧 audio debate on today’s market setup

Bitcoin Strategy & Market Analysis | W3 January 2026
The main question of today’s major research:
Is there enough demand in the market to sustain the trend?
Inside the full BTC market research, you will also find a concise PDF brief and an audio version you can listen to.

Adler Insight Light - Weekly ML Snapshot #003
A new ML-based Bitcoin market report is out.
The model assesses market phase, risk, and directional bias.
We compare the model’s conclusions with human analysis in the full Bitcoin Strategy & Market Analysis report.

Got 60 seconds? 🧡 Share your feedback

STH discount compressed from -22% to -4% in two months. Price is now testing STH cost basis. 35K BTC in profit hit exchanges yesterday. Profit vs loss: 7.5:1.
New ☕ Adler AM 👇

STH vs LTH cost basis - who's underwater right now. % Supply in Profit/Loss, sell pressure from underwater holders.
On-Chain Fundamentals for Humans | Part 4 👇

Guys, quick update - I’ve upgraded the dashboard to v2.1. Removed outdated models and added new ones.
Please take a look and share your feedback:

$100K Level to Become a Wall of Resistance
☕️Morning Brief #83 👇